UBS Group AG

As a holding company, UBS Group AG runs its business through UBS AG and its subsidiaries. The main segments of the company include Corporate Center, Investment Bank, Personal & Corporate Banking, Asset Management, and Wealth Management Americas.

Recent Business Updates:

• Appointment of new group CEO (March 29, 2023): The Board of Directors of UBS has nominated Sergio P. Ermotti as Group Chief Executive Officer and President of the Group Executive Board, starting on 5 April 2023, following the Annual General Meeting, as a follow-up to the announcement on 19 March 2023 regarding UBS' acquisition of Credit Suisse. Ralph Hamers, who consented to retire to further the interests of the new partnership, the Swiss financial industry, and the nation, will be replaced by him. Ralph Hamers will stay on at UBS and collaborate with Sergio P. Ermotti as an advisor throughout the transition phase to make sure that the deal closes successfully and that there is a seamless handover. The Board made its choice considering UBS's new goals and difficulties after the announcement of the purchase. For nine years, Sergio P. Ermotti served as group chief executive officer of UBS, effectively repositioning the company in response to the significant difficulties brought on by the Global Financial Crisis.
• Tender offer of senior unsecured bail-in notes (March 22, 2023): The EUR 1.5 billion 4.625% fixed rate note due March 2028 with ISIN CH1255915006 and the EUR 1.25 billion 4.750% fixed rate note due March 2032 with ISIN CH1255915014, both issued on March 17, 2023, were both asked to tender their Notes for cash by UBS Group AG. The Issuer is making the offer to buy the Notes at their respective re-offer price considering the unusual corporate actions disclosed on March 19, 2023, not long after the issue date, even though UBS has been in compliance with all of its obligations pertaining to the Notes from the Issue Date.
• UBS to Acquire Credit Suisse (March 19, 2023): The merger is anticipated to produce a company with total invested assets exceeding USD 5 trillion and potential for sustained value. In accordance with the terms of the all-share transaction, holders of Credit Suisse shares will get one UBS share for every 22.48 shares they own, or CHF 0.76 per share, for a total consideration of CHF 3 billion. The deal to support marks, purchase price adjustments, and restructuring charges provides UBS with CHF 25 billion in downside protection, as well as an extra 50% of downside protection on non-core assets.

Technical Observation (on the daily chart)

The price of UBS recently has been volatile and fell on a short-term basis, due to failures in the banking industry globally. The price is currently between two important levels of USD 18.00-USD 21.00, with a break-out on either side, will decide on the further trend for the stock. Moreover, the momentum indicator RSI (14 period) is recovering from the over-sold levels and shows a reading of ~48.10 and thus some consolidation can be expected after such a big correction. Finally, price is below the trend-following indicators 21-period SMA and 50-period SMA, which can act as dynamic resistance in the short term.

As per the above-mentioned price action, recent business updates and technical indicators analysis, a ‘Watch' rating has been given to UBS Group AG at the current price of USD 18.40 as of March 29, 2023, at 09:05 am PDT. Individuals can evaluate the stock based on the support and resistance levels provided in the report in case of keen interest taking into consideration the risk-reward scenario.

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Related Risk: This report may be looked at from high-risk perspective and recommendation is provided for a short duration. This report is solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the stocks has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the stock prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risks, currency risks, social and political instability risks etc.

How to Read the Charts?

The Green colour line reflects the 21-period simple moving average (SMA) while the red line indicates the 50- period simple moving average (SMA). SMA helps to identify existing price trend. If the prices are trading above the 21-period and 50-period moving average, then it shows prices are currently trading in a bullish trend.

The Black colour line in the chart’s lower segment reflects the Relative Strength Index (14-Period) which indicates price momentum and signals momentum in trend. A reading of 70 or above suggests overbought status while a reading of 30 or below suggests an oversold status.

The Blue colour bars in the chart’s lower segment show the volume of the stock. The volume is the number of shares that changed hands during a given day. Stocks with high volumes are more liquid than stocks with lesser volume as liquidity in stocks helps in easier and faster execution of the order.

The Orange colour lines are the trend lines drawn by connecting two or more price points and used for trend identification purposes. The trend line also acts as a line of support and resistance.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.

The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is March 29, 2023. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Abbreviations

CMP: Current Market Price

SMA: Simple Moving Average

RSI: Relative Strength Index

USD: United States dollar

Note: Trading decisions require a thorough analysis by individual. Technical reports in general chart out metrics that may be assessed by individuals before any stock evaluation. The above are illustrative analytical factors used for evaluating the stocks; other parameters can be looked at along with additional risks per se. Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

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