Highlights

  • Orders exceeding GBP 27 billion secured so far in 2025, with further agreements expected before year-end.
  • Full-year 2025 guidance maintained, forecasting sales growth of 8–10% and EBIT growth of 9–11%.
  • Approximately GBP 1.5 billion expected to be returned to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks in 2025.

BAE Systems plc (LSE:BA) today issued a market update confirming that trading in the second half of the year remains in line with expectations. The Group reaffirmed its full-year 2025 guidance and reported continued growth in its order intake, supported by customer demand and major defence contracts across key programmes.

Operational Performance and Outlook

BAE Systems said its operational and financial performance continues to underpin the upgraded guidance announced at its half-year results. The company’s outlook for 2025 remains unchanged across all metrics, with good progress made on delivering critical defence technologies and capabilities for global customers.

For 2025, BAE Systems expects sales growth of 8–10%, compared with GBP 28.3 billion in 2024. Underlying EBIT is anticipated to increase 9–11%, up from GBP 3.0 billion, while underlying earnings per share are forecast to rise 8–10% from 68.5 pence. Free cash flow for 2025 is expected to exceed GBP 1.1 billion.

The Group said its guidance is based on a GBP/USD exchange rate of $1.28:GBP 1. A five-cent movement in the exchange rate would impact sales by approximately GBP 525 million, EBIT by GBP 75 million, and EPS by 1.4 pence.

Expanding Global Order Book

BAE Systems has secured orders totalling more than GBP 27 billion so far in 2025, reflecting broad-based demand across its defence portfolio. Major awards in the second half include approximately GBP 4 billion for the build of 20 Typhoon aircraft and weapons integration for Türkiye, with first deliveries scheduled for 2030.

The Group also secured around $3.3 billion (GBP 2.6 billion) in Electronic Systems orders, including incremental funding for Space & Mission Systems and new contracts for APKWS and tactical radio systems. Additionally, $1.7 billion (GBP 1.3 billion) was awarded for US combat vehicle production, alongside GBP 1.1 billion of MBDA missile system orders and GBP 0.9 billion for the Dreadnought submarine programme.

BAE Systems noted that the recent agreement between the Norwegian and UK governments to supply at least five Type 26 anti-submarine frigates is expected to result in a significant future order once contracts are finalised after 2025.

Strategic Alignment and Global Programmes

The company’s portfolio continues to align closely with the national defence strategies of key markets. Increased NATO spending provides a supportive environment for future opportunities in space systems, electronic warfare, air and missile defence, combat aircraft, vehicles, and naval platforms.

In the United States, progress continues on the AUKUS trilateral security pact and the Golden Dome air and missile defence initiative, with BAE Systems’ technologies well positioned to support both programmes.

Capital Allocation and Shareholder Returns

BAE Systems said its financial position enables the execution of its capital allocation policy, which includes investment in growth, selective acquisitions, and shareholder distributions. In 2025, total cash returned to shareholders is expected to be around GBP 1.5 billion, comprising the final dividend for 2024, the interim dividend for 2025 (to be paid on 3 December 2025), and approximately GBP 500 million in share repurchases.

Next Results Announcement

The company will announce its preliminary results for the year ending 31 December 2025 on 18 February 2026.