UK fiscal strain amid global geopolitics and rate-cut doubts:

Index Update: The FTSE 100 index, a key benchmark index for the London stock exchange, was trading up around 0.21% on 25 November 2025.  

Macro Update: Britain heads into Wednesday’s budget with renewed pressure on finance minister Rachel Reeves, who is poised to announce another round of substantial tax hikes despite having vowed last year they would not be repeated. Confidence within the Labour Party and scrutiny from bond markets are building as weakening economic conditions challenge her fiscal strategy. Meanwhile, the Financial Conduct Authority is examining accounting issues at WH Smith’s U.S. business after leadership changes, while Kingfisher upgraded its profit outlook thanks to market share gains in the UK despite softer consumer demand. Market sentiment remained cautious, with the FTSE 100 edging lower ahead of the budget and certain sectors, including defence and consumer staples, posting declines. Separately, Shell signed a long-term deal to provide renewable energy to Ferrari’s Maranello facility, supporting the luxury carmaker’s decarbonisation goals. 

Top Market Movers: Among top gainers on FTSE 100 index, Kingfisher PLC (LSE: KGF) witnessed a rise of 4.86% followed by Airtel Africa PLC (LSE: AAF) which gained around 4.33%. 

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar held steady on Tuesday as markets weighed the likelihood of a Fed rate cut next month following dovish remarks from policymakers. The yen stayed fragile, keeping intervention risks elevated. In commodities, gold rose 0.33% to USD 4,183.40, silver added 0.31% to USD 51.30, and copper climbed 1.17% to USD 10,880.75. Brent crude slipped 0.30% to USD 63.20 as supply concerns overshadowed geopolitical uncertainties. 

Our Stance: Global markets were cautious as geopolitics and rate expectations pulled in opposite directions. A surprise call between Trump and Xi signalled warmer U.S.–China ties, but Beijing’s insistence on Taiwan’s “return to China” and Japan’s warning of a possible military response kept regional tensions elevated. At the same time, mixed signals from the Fed – a recent cut but hawkish tone – left investors uncertain, even as markets bet on another reduction in December and possibly faster easing in 2026. U.S. equities extended gains led by big AI names, European stocks moved sideways ahead of key U.S. data, oil eased on 2026 oversupply worries despite Russia-Ukraine risks, and the dollar held firm while the yen stayed under intervention watch.  

FTSE 100 

The FTSE 100 edged down 3.91 points to 9,531.00 but continues to trade well above the major support zone near 9,200, keeping the overall structure steady. The 21-day SMA at 9,691.17 sits slightly above the current price, indicating a mild bearish tone, while the 50-day SMA at 9,523.31 suggests broader stability and scope for short-term consolidation. RSI remains elevated with a slight downside bias. Key support lies near 8,950, with resistance at 10,000 and 10,120. 

Source - EODHD/Others