UK tax rises, BoE cut odds up; U.S. tech rallies, Europe cools, oil slips:

Index Update: The FTSE 100 index, a key benchmark index for the London stock exchange, was trading down around 0.62% on 04 November 2025.  

Macro Update: Finance Minister Rachel Reeves signalled broad tax rises in the Nov 26 budget to avoid “austerity,” citing high debt, low productivity and stubborn inflation, while odds of a year-end BoE rate cut rose as inflation held at 3.8% y/y with easing services and wage pressures. BP reported a smaller-than-expected Q3 underlying profit decline on better refining margins, gave no fresh detail on the Castrol sale, and continued its portfolio refocus. Reform UK’s Nigel Farage scaled back near-term tax-cut promises, saying cuts would follow market confidence in economic fixes. AstraZeneca shareholders backed a direct NYSE listing (99.36% support), keeping London and Stockholm listings and targeting deeper U.S. capital access (the U.S. is >40% of revenue). Domino’s Pizza Group posted +1% like-for-like Q3 sales but warned weak demand could persist into 2026 amid tax-hike concerns. 

Top Market Movers: Among top gainers on FTSE 100 index, Segro PLC (LSE: SGRO) witnessed a rise of 2.38% followed by GSK PLC (LSE: GSK) which gained around 1.28%. 

Commodity Update: The dollar held firm near a three-month high on Tuesday as a divided Federal Reserve prompted traders to scale back rate cut expectations. Investors also awaited the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy decision, with rates expected to remain unchanged. Gold slipped 0.54% to USD 3,992.20 per ounce, silver fell 0.80% to USD 47.66, and copper declined 0.61% to USD 10,778.00. Brent crude eased 0.10% to USD 64.80 amid OPEC+ output concerns. 

Our Stance: Trump’s pivot from initial 20% China tariffs over fentanyl to halving them for a new working group signals a tactical shift from pressure to engagement, even as Republicans doubt its efficacy; at home, a poll shows broad concern over trade deficits (47% call it an emergency) ahead of a Supreme Court review of tariff legality. Markets reflect this mix: U.S. equities rose on AI headlines (Amazon’s $38bn OpenAI–AWS deal; Nvidia +2.2% after export-curb remarks), while Europe and Asia eased (STOXX 600 -1.6%; U.S. futures softer) and oil slipped (Brent $64.07, -1.3%; WTI $60.21, -1.4%) on weak PMIs, a firmer dollar, and OPEC+ pausing Q1 hikes. Net takeaway: policy and growth uncertainties persist even as AI enthusiasm props up parts of the market, keeping near-term volatility risks elevated.  

FTSE 100 

The FTSE 100 declined 99.48 points to close at 9,601.89 but continues to trade well above key support at 8,900. The index remains comfortably above the 21-day SMA at 9,549.40 and the 50-day SMA at 9,384.07, indicating a stable technical structure with scope for near-term consolidation. The RSI, positioned below the overbought zone yet within bullish territory, suggests a mildly positive bias. Immediate support is placed near 8,950, while resistance lies at 9,800 and 10,000. 

Source - EODHD/Others