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Highlights

  • Canaccord Genuity raises target price from 210p to 250p following export agreement.
  • Interim pricing set at $16/bbl entitlement, effectively $30/bbl for production oil.
  • Recognition of Shaikan licence reduces historical regulatory and credit uncertainty.

Analysts at Canaccord Genuity have revised their target price for Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd (LSE:GKP) from 210p to 250p. The revision follows the company’s imminent restart of crude oil pipeline exports after formal agreements were signed with the Kurdistan Regional Government and the Federal Government of Iraq. Exports had been shut-in since the end of March 2023.

Interim Pricing and Revenue Outlook
During the interim period, Gulf Keystone is set to receive $16 per barrel for entitlement oil. When converted, this translates to approximately $30 per barrel for production oil. The calculation is enhanced by the inclusion of other non-GKP production within the broader export process. Canaccord Genuity expects the effective price received to exceed $30 per barrel. The firm also assumes Shaikan pricing of $32 per barrel to year-end 2025, compared with local sales at $27–28 per barrel.

The interim process will involve independent evaluation of invoices, leading to a reconciliation with full production sharing contract (PSC) terms based on international prices. Analysts note that there may be a lag of around two months on receipts during this period, compared with no lag for local sales.

Regulatory Clarity
The review highlighted the Federal Government of Iraq’s recognition of Gulf Keystone’s Shaikan licence and its terms. This development addresses previous uncertainty regarding non-ratification of international oil company licences in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI). Additionally, the company’s ability to market its own crude is expected to reduce credit risk associated with third-party sales.

Speculative Rating
Canaccord Genuity maintains a ‘speculative buy’ rating on Gulf Keystone Petroleum. Analysts emphasize that while the target price increase reflects higher realised oil prices and regulatory clarity, the timing and execution of the new export and sales process will remain key factors influencing near-term cash flow.