Highlights

  • Imported HMS 80:20 held at US$407/t CFR with no new deals, while Baltic offers and some indicators slipped.
  • A fatal blast idled Habas's Aliaga melt shop, removing an estimated 0.26 Mt a month of Import demand, as mills also switch to cheap Chinese billet.
  • Exporters asking US$410/t face buyers with fewer furnaces running; watch the Habas restart timeline and January-shipment bookings.

Turkey's scrap market has stalled near its highs as a deadly explosion at Habas idles a major consumer and mills Fill the gap with Chinese billet.

What happened

Turkey's deep-sea scrap market has gone quiet at the top of its range. Imported HMS 1&2 (80:20) was assessed at US$407/t CFR on 11 November, unchanged, with no fresh deals reported. A daily HMS 80:20 CFR Turkey indicator slipped 1.49% in its latest reading.

The first cracks are showing in Baltic material. Two ex-Baltic sellers cut their prices after Turkish mills showed no interest in signing new deep-sea deals. On the London Metal Exchange, the November scrap contract was quoted at US$399/t, down US$6.50, on 11 November.

That is a sharp change in tone from a week earlier. Turkish mills booked at least seven deep-sea cargoes for December shipment, mainly from the UK and northern Europe, at US$395-398.5/t CFR. The CFR Turkey benchmark behind the LME contract rose from US$391.50/t on 22 October to US$411/t on 5 November.

Over October as a whole, HMS averaged US$397/t CFR, down US$4/t on the month, while US-origin material reached US$407/t in late October and early November.

Why it happened

The biggest new Factor is the explosion at Habas's Aliaga steelworks near Izmir on 9 November. The Izmir Governor's Office said an overhead crane broke loose and fell into an electric arc furnace during casting. The blast killed at least 17 workers and halted production.

Habas is not a small buyer. It made 3.88 million tonnes of crude steel in 2025, roughly 10% of Turkish output, and is estimated to use about 0.32 Mt of scrap a month. If around 80% of that is imported, the idle plant removes about 0.26 Mt of monthly demand, close to 16% of Turkey's average monthly scrap imports. The outage could last longer than two to three weeks.

Cheap semi-finished steel is a second drag. Turkish mills have booked more than 250,000t of Chinese billet since late October, with Izmir and Iskenderun mills paying about US$517/t CFR. Every tonne of imported billet is a tonne of scrap that does not need melting.

Money is tight as well. Commercial lending rates of around 49% and a 37% policy rate have pushed Turkish mills into just-in-time buying, while the lira has weakened to about 49.20 per dollar.

How it plays out

Sellers are not rushing to cut. US and EU suppliers have been seeking US$410/t CFR, backed by a structural scrap shortage and Rotterdam-Marmara freight near US$49-50/t after low Rhine and Danube water halted barges. Some US domestic markets also settled US$20-30 per gross ton higher for November.

That sets up a standoff. Exporters facing firm home markets have little room to discount, while Turkish buyers with a big furnace dark and billet on the water have little reason to chase. The likely result is thin trade and a gentle drift lower rather than a collapse.

In the short term the winners are Chinese billet exporters and the Turkish mills still running, which can afford to buy patiently. The losers are Baltic and European yards that need Turkish Demand to clear stock before winter.

Next week, watch three things: any official timeline for the Habas restart, whether Turkish mills return for January-shipment cargoes, and whether the ex-Baltic cuts spread to US-origin offers. A deal below US$400/t CFR would confirm the market has turned.