Highlights

  • CME HRC futures rose 0.7% to about US$1,427/st on 11 Nov, and Nucor lifted its Spot Price US$15 to US$1,295/st.
  • Section 232 tariffs have choked imports, spot Supply is thin despite 88.9% mill utilisation, and scrap costs are rising.
  • Mills keep pricing power into year-end; new capacity in 2027 and any Congressional push on tariffs are the main longer-term brakes.

America's hot-rolled coil price is pressing against four-year highs as tariffs lock out foreign steel and mills ration spot tonnes.

What happened

American hot-rolled coil keeps climbing. CME HRC futures traded at about US$1,427 per short ton on 11 November, up 0.7% on the day, 8.5% on the month and almost 67% higher than a year earlier. The late-October peak of US$1,429 was the highest since April 2022.

Physical prices are moving in step. In a 9 November letter Nucor raised its weekly consumer spot price (CSP) by US$15 to US$1,295/st, a 1.2% gain, while its California joint venture CSI went up US$15 to US$1,365. Lead times held at three to five weeks. The increase extends a run that had entered a fourth straight month back in mid-October.

Domestic market prices were put at US$1,340-1,400/st on 6 November, up from US$1,300-1,340 a week earlier and far above the US$825-865 seen in the same week of 2025. On the midpoints, that is a 3.8% weekly rise.

Why it happened

The foundation is trade policy. Section 232 duties on imported steel doubled to 50% in June 2025, and Cleveland-Cliffs chief Lourenco Goncalves has said the policy pushed imports to "their lowest levels since 2009". With foreign coil priced out, domestic mills effectively set the price.

Spot supply is thin even though mills are running hard. US raw steel output jumped 15.7% in the week to 31 October to 2.053 million net tons, with capacity utilisation at 88.9%, against 75.1% a year earlier. Much of that tonnage is tied up in contracts, and weekly reviews again reported limited spot availability as mills grapple with rising fixed costs.

Raw materials are adding fuel. The November US scrap survey produced a trend indicator of 70.6, pointing to a 7.1% month-on-month rise after a 4.8% gain in October, with full mill order books and weak scrap inflows cited. Dearer scrap lifts costs for electric-arc producers such as Nucor.

The 3 November midterms did not dent the rally. Democrats won both chambers and may revisit Section 232, but repeal would likely meet a presidential veto. Legal analysts call removing the tariffs "an uphill push".

How it plays out

Mills are the clear winners. Converted to metric tonnes, Nucor's CSP equals roughly US$1,428/t, nearly three times China's US$485/t FOB export price. Service centres and manufacturers that buy coil, from auto parts makers to equipment producers, must swallow that premium or pass it on.

Relief may come in 2027 as capacity arrives. Nucor's West Virginia sheet mill, at about 3 million tons a year, should start shipping in early 2027, and US Steel's Big River 2 was projected to reach 3Mt a year by the end of 2026. Until then, buyers have little leverage.

Policy is the wild card. Any push by the new Congress for Tariff exclusions, or limits on future Section 232 actions, would matter more for 2027 contract talks than for spot coil today. Year-end destocking at service centres is the nearer-term brake on demand.

Next week, watch Nucor's Monday CSP for another increase, early December scrap talks, the weekly AISI utilisation figure, and whether CME futures can close decisively above the late-October high of US$1,429. A pause from Nucor would be the first concrete sign that buyer resistance is starting to bite.