Admiral Group has bought back 1,000,000 shares since 30 September under its £45m programme, and on 2 November reported 305,254,676 voting shares. The filings come as the insurer cuts 500 UK jobs and Brokers disagree over the motor pricing cycle.

What happened

Admiral Group plc (LSE:ADM) is a constituent of the FTSE All-Share index and sits in the financials sector, classed by StockAnalysis under property and casualty insurance. Its latest Total Voting Rights notice gave the count as at 30 October, with no shares held in treasury.

According to an AI-generated summary on of the 28 October filing, Admiral bought 250,000 shares between 21 and 27 October at a volume-weighted average of about 3,827p. Cumulative purchases reached 1,000,000 shares at an average of 3,709.19p.

That works out at roughly £37.1m of the £45m limit, by our arithmetic. UBS is running the programme, which can last until 31 December and is intended to reduce share capital.

Why it matters for investors

The buyback is small next to a Market Capitalisation of about £11.65bn, and it comes alongside a much lower dividend. The half-year report on 6 August cut the interim payout to 70.5p from 115.0p, while pre-tax profit fell 18% to £429.2m, below the £435m consensus, Alliance News reported.

Earnings per share fell 18% to 109.0p, and the Solvency Ratio slipped to 190% from 194%, reflecting the Flock Acquisition and employee share scheme purchases. UK Motor turnover fell 5% as average premiums declined.

Cost is the newer pressure point. ITV reported in late September that Admiral would cut 500 UK roles, about 5% of its UK insurance workforce, to save £100m. The company said artificial intelligence was not responsible for the cuts.

The motor pricing debate

Management's case is that earlier price rises will feed through. Admiral expects stronger group profits in the second half, and chief executive Milena Mondini de Focatiis said it is "well positioned" for an upturn in UK motor.

Peel Hunt takes the opposite view. Insurance Business reported in mid-October that the broker kept a Sell rating and cut its target to 2,460p from 2,620p, seeing "little sign of a turn in the UK motor insurance cycle". It questioned whether rivals would follow Admiral's rate rises of about 8%.

Defaqto data cited in the same article showed quoted premiums up 2.7% year on year at the end of the third quarter, the first annual rise since 2023. Analysis: this offers some support for a turn, but quarterly growth of 0.5% leaves the question open, as claims Inflation is estimated by Admiral at 5% to 7%.

How the shares have performed

AJ Bell's delayed data on 2 November showed the shares quoted at 3,872p to sell and 3,876p to buy, up 8p on the day. The year range is 2,638p to 4,128p, and the Dividend yield is shown as 3.7%. The price is above Admiral's 3,670p close on 12 October cited by Insurance Business.

StockAnalysis, last updated on 16 October, showed a Buy consensus from 15 analysts with a target of 3,994.60p. It also listed Morgan Stanley's upgrade to Overweight with a 4,450p target, and Berenberg's downgrade to Hold with a 4,200p target. These are third-party views.

What to watch next

Weekly buyback notices will show how quickly the remaining £8m or so is used before the 31 December deadline. Whether Admiral announces a further programme is not known from the material reviewed.

StockAnalysis lists an estimated update date of 3 November, but no such announcement appeared on when checked. The next test of the second-half profit guidance is therefore still to come.