Antofagasta (LSE: ANTO) has spent much of 2026 firmly in the spotlight of UK investors who want exposure to the global energy transition through copper. The Chilean-British miner is one of only a handful of pure-play copper producers in the FTSE 100, and according to company updates it is in the middle of a multi-year, multi-billion-dollar expansion programme aimed at lifting output through the rest of the decade. With copper widely seen as the metal that powers electrification, the question many investors are asking is whether Antofagasta’s long Capital cycle is finally about to translate into stronger free Cash Flow.

This article looks at Antofagasta’s recent results, share price, Dividend record, valuation and the sector trends shaping its outlook. It does not constitute financial advice; it is a journalist’s overview of publicly available information for UK readers researching the stock.

Key takeaways

  • Antofagasta reported 2025 copper production of 653,700 tonnes, 2% lower year on year, according to its 2025 full year results.
  • The company has guided to copper production of 650,000-700,000 tonnes in 2026, with group net cash costs expected at $1.15-$1.35/lb.
  • Cash flow from operations rose 30% to $4.3 billion in 2025, with cash and liquid investments of $4.9 billion at year-end.
  • Capex peaked in 2025 at $3.7 billion as the $4.4 billion Nueva Centinela expansion progresses, with completion expected in 2027.
  • A final dividend of 48.0 US cents per share for 2025 was scheduled for payment on 11 May 2026.
  • In April 2026, the US Senate lifted a long-standing ban on the Twin Metals project in Minnesota, although construction is not expected before 2029-2030.

Why investors are watching this FTSE 100 stock

Copper is increasingly described by analysts as a structural growth story, and Antofagasta is one of the most direct ways UK investors can buy exposure to it on the London Stock Exchange. Demand drivers include electric vehicles, grid expansion, data centres and renewable energy infrastructure, all of which are copper-intensive. Antofagasta operates four producing mines in Chile, with Los Pelambres and Centinela the most material to group Earnings.

Investors are also watching because Antofagasta is going through one of the largest Investment phases in its history. The company is building the second concentrator at Centinela, has approved the Encuentro Sulphides pit and continues to study further Options at Los Pelambres. These projects are expected to underpin a step-change in production from 2027 onwards, according to company guidance, although they have also lifted capital spending sharply in the short term.

At the same time, ANTO is viewed by some UK investors as a hedge against persistent Inflation, given mined commodities have historically held up well in periods of monetary expansion. Whether the share price reflects all of this potential is a question only the market can answer.

Recent share price performance

Where the shares sit in May 2026

According to recent market data, Antofagasta shares were quoted at around 3,551p at the start of May 2026, valuing the company at approximately £37 billion. That makes ANTO comfortably one of the largest Mining names in the FTSE 100, although it sits below the diversified giants Rio Tinto, Glencore and Anglo American.

Drivers of the 2026 move

The shares have benefited from supportive copper prices, the lifting of the US ban on Twin Metals and continued progress at Centinela. According to company updates, 2025 cash flow from operations grew strongly, helping to reassure investors that the high-capex phase is being funded comfortably. Currency movements, Chilean political news and global growth expectations have all contributed to Volatility.

Longer-term context

Over longer time frames, Antofagasta has tracked the global copper cycle, with major drawdowns in 2015 and 2020 followed by sharp recoveries. The structural growth thesis around the energy transition has, according to industry commentary, helped attract a wider base of UK investors who previously held only diversified miners.

Business performance and earnings

Antofagasta’s 2025 full year results showed copper production of 653,700 tonnes, around 2% lower than 2024. The company reported that lower output at Centinela Cathodes and Los Pelambres was largely offset by an increase at Centinela Concentrates. Cash flow from operations rose 30% to $4.3 billion, supported by a more constructive copper price environment.

The Balance Sheet remains a key part of the investment case. At 31 December 2025, Antofagasta reported cash, cash equivalents and liquid investments of $4.9 billion (up from $4.3 billion a year earlier), with the net Debt to EBITDA ratio at 0.53x. That is broadly in line with the prior year and gives the group flexibility to continue funding its growth pipeline without resorting to large Equity raises.

Looking forward, group cash costs in 2026 before by-product credits are guided at $2.30-$2.50/lb, with group net cash costs of $1.15-$1.35/lb. Capital Expenditure peaked in 2025 at $3.7 billion, up from $2.4 billion in 2024, reflecting the build-out at Centinela. Production guidance of 650-700kt for 2026 implies steady output, with more meaningful growth expected once the new concentrator ramps up.

Dividends and Shareholder returns

Antofagasta operates a dividend policy linked to underlying earnings, which means payouts can move materially with the copper price. For 2025, the company declared a final dividend of 48.0 US cents per share, equivalent to 35.5766 pence per ordinary share, payable on 11 May 2026. The trailing Dividend Yield, based on the early May 2026 share price, was reported at approximately 1.27%.

UK investors should remember that the dividend is declared in US dollars and converted into sterling, introducing a foreign exchange element to the income stream. Buybacks have not historically been a regular feature of Antofagasta’s capital return story, with the company instead relying on dividends and reinvestment to deliver shareholder returns.

Because dividends are tied to earnings, payouts could be higher or lower in subsequent years depending on copper prices, production volumes and capital intensity. Investors are watching how the board chooses to balance returns against the cost of completing the Nueva Centinela expansion.

Valuation and market position

Antofagasta is regularly described in market commentary as one of the higher-rated names in the global copper space, reflecting its growth pipeline, Chilean asset base and reputation for operational discipline. With a Market Capitalisation of around £37 billion in early May 2026, ANTO trades on an earnings multiple that is sensitive to copper price assumptions; even modest changes in long-term copper forecasts can have a significant effect on perceived Fair Value.

Within the FTSE 100, Antofagasta provides a different exposure profile compared with the larger diversified miners. Rio Tinto and Glencore offer baskets of iron ore, aluminium, coal and copper, while ANTO is overwhelmingly a copper story with by-product credits from molybdenum, gold and silver. That focus is attractive to investors who want a clean copper play, but it does mean the share price can be more volatile when copper moves sharply.

Investors comparing ANTO with global peers such as Freeport-McMoRan, Southern Copper and First Quantum often look at price-to-net-asset-value, EV/EBITDA and production cost positioning. According to company disclosures, Antofagasta sits in the lower half of the global cost curve, which is supportive of margins when prices come under pressure.

Sector trends shaping Antofagasta

Copper demand is increasingly tied to the global energy transition. Electric vehicles use multiple times more copper than internal combustion engine cars, while expanded renewable generation, transmission, data centres and grid storage all require additional copper. Major forecasters have warned of a potential structural Deficit in copper Supply later this decade, although such projections always come with significant uncertainty.

On the supply side, the industry faces longer permitting timelines, declining ore grades and rising community and environmental expectations, particularly in Chile and Peru. Antofagasta is exposed to all of these dynamics. The company’s decision to push forward with the Nueva Centinela expansion is, according to the company, designed to position the group to benefit if structural deficits materialise.

Chilean tax and Royalty rules, water availability in the Atacama region and labour negotiations all remain critical operating factors. The progress of the Twin Metals project in Minnesota, which was unblocked by a US Senate vote in April 2026, adds an optional growth lever, although development timelines are long and the project still faces regulatory and legal hurdles.

Risks to watch

Copper-price volatility is the most obvious risk. Antofagasta’s earnings, dividends and share price are all heavily geared to the metal, and a sharp downturn could pressure cash flow at a moment when the group is still investing in new capacity. The company’s cost guidance assumes by-product credits remain supportive; weaker prices for gold, molybdenum or silver could push net cash costs higher.

Project execution is another Factor. The Centinela second concentrator is one of the largest copper projects under construction globally, and any cost overruns, delays or commissioning issues could affect both growth and shareholder returns. The Encuentro Sulphides pit and Los Pelambres expansion options carry similar risks. Water access in northern Chile, regulatory permitting and Indigenous community engagement remain ongoing operational considerations.

Macroeconomic and political risks also matter. Chilean tax reform proposals, currency movements, Chinese demand and global Recession risk can all affect ANTO’s near-term performance. Twin Metals, while back in play after the April 2026 Senate vote, is unlikely to contribute meaningful production this decade and remains exposed to potential legal challenges. Investors are watching how the company manages all of these moving parts.