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Macquarie Group share move and recent return profile

Macquarie Group (ASX:MQG) recently closed at A$223.89 after a small 0.09% decline on the day, following a period where the stock delivered positive returns over the week, month and past 3 months.

See our latest analysis for Macquarie Group.

The recent 7 day share price return of 8.90% and 30 day share price return of 12.77% sit alongside a 1 year total shareholder return of 28.27%, suggesting momentum has been building over both shorter and longer horizons.

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With Macquarie now trading near A$223.89 and sitting only a few percent below the average analyst price target, along with an internal intrinsic value estimate that is higher again, is there still a buying opportunity here, or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 4.2% Undervalued

With Macquarie Group's most followed narrative pointing to a fair value of A$233.70 against a last close of A$223.89, the current pricing gap rests on a specific set of growth, margin and valuation assumptions that investors may want to scrutinise closely.

The business is positioned to benefit from potential performance fees and asset realization gains in key investment areas like data centers and green energy projects, potentially impacting earnings growth and improving return on equity as these assets mature.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what justifies paying up for a diversified financial group at this kind of earnings multiple? The core of the narrative leans on steady top line expansion, firmer profit margins and a future valuation multiple that stays above the broader capital markets peer group. Want to see exactly how those ingredients combine into that A$233.70 fair value number?

Result: Fair Value of A$233.70 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, there are still pressure points to watch, including margin pressure in Banking and Financial Services, as well as softer client activity in Commodities and Global Markets, that could unsettle this narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this Macquarie Group narrative.

Another view on Macquarie Group's valuation

The analyst narrative points to Macquarie Group trading around fair value, but the P/E of 22.6x tells a slightly different story. It sits above the Australian Capital Markets average of 20x, peers at 20.9x, and even its own fair ratio of 22.2x. This leans toward an expensive label rather than a clear bargain, so how comfortable are you paying that premium?

Story Continues

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.ASX:MQG P/E Ratio as at Apr 2026

Next Steps

With sentiment in this article pulling in both cautious and optimistic directions, it makes sense to review the numbers yourself and move quickly to form your own view, starting with the balance between 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include MQG.AX.

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