Bearish Performance in Commodities Market Last Week, One Commodity Below Resistance Level – Coffee

Global Commodity Market Wrap-Up

The metals market closed the week on a softer note, with weakness persisting even as the U.S. government shutdown ended and key economic data began to be released. Easing demand and lingering uncertainty continued to weigh on sentiment, keeping the market under pressure as investors assessed the potential impact on near-term trends. Gold slipped 0.34%, silver declined 1.50%, and copper edged down 0.59%. Among base metals, lead fell sharply by 3.89% and zinc eased 0.94%. Overall, the market remained cautious, with traders awaiting key economic data and clarity on the Fed’s upcoming December policy decision.

Natural gas slipped 0.61% last week as demand eased and supply conditions remained steady. Crude oil fell 3.15%, pressured by stalled Russia–Ukraine peace talks and lingering geopolitical uncertainty. U.S. sugar declined 1.20%, reversing the previous week’s gains amid improved global supply cues. Overall, commodities reflected shifting supply-demand dynamics, with upcoming economic data and policy expectations likely to shape near-term market sentiment.

Global commodities ended the week on a bearish note, pressured by geopolitical tensions and easing demand. Energy markets softened amid uncertainty over international conflicts, while agricultural and industrial commodities remained subdued due to ample supply and cautious consumption. Overall, market sentiment turned cautious, with investors closely watching upcoming economic data and policy developments that could further influence near-term commodity trends.

The upcoming Micro and Macroeconomic events that may impact on market sentiments include updated Core Retail Sales, CB Consumer Confidence, GDP, Core PCE Price Index and New Home Sales.

Having understood the global commodities’ performance over the past week, taking cues from major global economic events, and based on technical analysis, noted below is the recommendation with generic insights, entry price, target prices, and stop-loss Coffee March Future (ICE: KCH6) for the next 2-4-week duration:

 Coffee March Future (ICE: KCH6)

Price Action and Technical Indicator Analysis: March coffee futures are trading below a significant horizontal resistance, indicating persistent weakness and forming lower lows that reflect bearish momentum. The 21-period and 50-period SMAs below the current price provide near-term support. Recent bearish candlesticks, along with an RSI of 45.79, suggest fading momentum. While the trend remains active, a sustained move below the resistance level is necessary to confirm the continuation of the bearish trend.

Now the next crucial support levels appear to be at USc 340.00 and USc 330.00, and prices may test these levels in the coming periods (2-4 weeks).

Source: REFINITIV; Analysis: Kalkine Group

As per the above-mentioned price action and technical indicators analysis, Coffee March Future (ICE: KCH6) is looking technically well-placed for a ‘Sell’ rating. Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual’s appetite for downside potential, risks, and any previous holdings. This recommendation is purely based on technical analysis, and fundamental analysis has not been considered in this report. Technical summary of the ‘Sell’ recommendation is as follows:

Upcoming Major Global Economic Events

Market events occur on a day-to-day basis depending on the frequency of the data and generally include an update on employment, inflation, GDP, WASDE report, consumer sentiments, etc. Noted below are the upcoming week's major global economic events that could impact commodities’ prices:

Futures Contract Specifications

Disclaimers 

Related Risks: Based on the technical analysis, the risks are defined as per risk-reward ratio (~0.80:1.00), however, returns are generated within a 2-4 weeks’ time frame. This may be looked at by Individuals with sufficient risk appetite looking for returns within short investment duration. The investment recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the commodities has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact commodity prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risk, currency risks, and social and political instability risks etc.

Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Note 2: Individuals can consider exiting from the commodity if the Target Price mentioned as per the Technical Analysis has been achieved and subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 3: How to Read the Charts?

The Green colour line reflects the 21-period moving average while the red line indicates the 50- period moving average. SMA helps to identify existing price trend. If the prices are trading above the 21-period and 50-period moving average, then it shows prices are currently trading in a bullish trend.

The Black colour line in the chart’s lower segment reflects the Relative Strength Index (14-Period) which indicates price momentum and signals momentum in trend. A reading of 70 or above suggests overbought status while a reading of 30 or below suggests an oversold status.

The Blue colour bars in the chart’s lower segment show the volume of the commodity. Commodity with high volumes is more liquid compared to the lesser ones. Liquidity in commodity helps in easier and faster execution of the order. 

The Orange colour lines are the trend lines drawn by connecting two or more price points and used for trend identification purposes. The trend line also acts as a line of support and resistance.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or Selling interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock. 

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or Selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock. 

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices. 

Risk Reward Ratio: The risk reward ratio is the difference between an entry point to a stop loss and profit level. This report is based on ~80% Stop Loss of the Target 1 from the entry point.

The reference date for all price data, volumes, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 21^st November 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV. 

Note: Trading decisions require a thorough analysis by individuals. Technical reports, in general, chart out metrics that may be assessed by individuals before any commodity evaluation. The above are illustrative analytical factors used for evaluating the commodity; other parameters can be looked at along with additional risks per side.