Global Commodity Market Wrap-Up

Last week, the commodity prices took some downside correction after an overall better performance in the prior week in terms of returns. All the precious metals witnessed technical corrections after a decent run in the last couple of weeks. Moderate rise in dollar index prices weighed on the Precious and Base metals up to certain extent. Notably, Gold prices settled at a 0.69% weekly loss while silver prices also followed and settled at a weekly loss of 2.05%. Base metals also witnessed slight downside correction towards key technical support levels as Zinc and Lead prices witnessed weekly decline of 1.18% and 1.81% respectively.   

On the Energy front, Crude oil prices took a pause after a significant rally in the recent past and settled last week with a marginal loss of 0.23%. Natural Gas slipped from higher levels and settled at a weekly loss of  0.64%.

Last week, only Agricultural segment outperformed  the other commodity segments. Soybean and Corn prices settled in a positive tone at 1.25% and 5.62% respectively. Sugar prices also settled in a positive tone by 1% on a weekly basis.     

In the existing week, precious metals continue to take some correction from the higher side while base metals are trying to recover from lower levels. On the Energy front, Crude oil prices are trading in a range with weak tone while Natural gas prices are reversing from key supporting levels. On the agricultural front, Sugar, Soybean and Corn prices continue to trade up in the existing week.

The upcoming macro events that may impact the market sentiments include an update on FOMC Statement, US Unemployment Claims, Natural Gas Inventories, and US Treasury Currency Report released Half-yearly.

Having understood the global commodities performance over the past one week, taking cues from major global economic events, and based on our technical analysis, noted below are our recommendations with the generic insights, entry price, target prices, and stop-loss for Natural Gas Futures (NYMEX: NGZ21) and Nickel Futures (NYMEX: CMNIZ21) for the next 1-2 weeks’ duration:         

Natural Gas Futures Contract (NYMEX: NGZ21)

Price Action and Technical Indicator Analysis:

On the daily chart, NYMEX Natural prices are trading in a symmetrical triangle pattern and sustaining above the lower band of the pattern. Moreover, the prices are trading above the trend-following indicator 50-period SMA, indicating a bullish trend. The leading indicator RSI (14-period) is trading at ~50.19 level, indicating positive momentum in the prices. Now the next crucial resistance level appears to be at USD 6, and prices may test that level in the coming sessions (1-2 weeks).

As per the above-mentioned price action and technical indicators analysis, we can conclude that Natural Gas December Futures (NCZ21) is looking technically well-placed for a ‘Buy’ rating. Investment decision should be made depending on an investors’ appetite on upside potential, risks, and any previous holdings. This recommendation is purely based on technical analysis, and fundamental analysis has not been considered. Technical summary of our ‘Buy’ recommendation is as follows:

Nickel December Futures (LME: CMNIZ21)

Price Action and Technical Indicator Analysis:

On the weekly chart, LME Nickel price broke out the downward sloping trend line resistance at USD 19750 level on October 15, 2021. Since the breakout, prices are sustaining above the downward sloping trend line. Prices have retested the trend line support recently and bounced from that level. Moreover, the prices are trading above the trend-following indicators 21-period SMA and 50-period SMA, indicating a bullish trend. The leading indicator RSI (14-period) is trading at ~55.41 level, supporting bullish stance on the commodity. Now the next crucial resistance level appears to be at USD 20350, and prices may test that level in the coming sessions (1-2 weeks).  

As per the above-mentioned price action and technical indicators analysis, we can conclude that Nickel December Futures (CMNIZ21) is looking technically well-placed for a ‘Buy’ rating. Investment decision should be made depending on an investors’ appetite on upside potential, risks, and any previous holdings. This recommendation is purely based on technical analysis, and fundamental analysis has not been considered. The summary of our ‘Buy’ recommendation is as follows:

Upcoming Major Global Economic Events

Market events occur on a day-to-day basis depending on the frequency of the data and generally include an update on employment, inflation, GDP, WASDE report, consumer sentiments, etc. Noted below are the upcoming week's major global economic events that could impact the commodities prices:

Futures Contract Specifications 

Disclaimers 

Investment Related Risks: Based on the technical analysis, the risks are defined as per risk-reward ratio (~0.80:1.00), however, returns are generated within 1-2 weeks’ time frame. This may be looked at by Investors with sufficient risk appetite looking for returns within short investment duration. Investment recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and fundamental performance of the commodities has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the commodity prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risk, currency risks, and social and political instability risks etc.

Entry Price: For the recommendation(s), the Entry Price is assumed to be at a certain level with a slight deviation on either side. A slight deviation (Example 1.0%-1.5%) on either side in the ‘Entry Price’ can be considered depending upon the upside or downside potential expected and also taking into consideration the Target 1 levels and Stop-loss levels.

Note 1: Investors can consider exiting from the stock if the Target Price mentioned as per the Technical Analysis has been achieved and subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 2: How to Read the Charts?

The Green colour line reflects the 21-period moving average while the red line indicates the 50- period moving average. SMA helps to identify existing price trend. If the prices are trading above the 21-period and 50-period moving average, then it shows prices are currently trading in a bullish trend.

The Black colour line in the chart’s lower segment reflects the Relative Strength Index (14-Period) which indicates price momentum and signals momentum in trend. A reading of 70 or above suggests overbought status while a reading of 30 or below suggests an oversold status.

The Blue colour bars in the chart’s lower segment show the volume of the commodity. Commodity with high volumes is more liquid compared to the lesser ones. Liquidity in commodity helps in easier and faster execution of the order. 

The Orange colour lines are the trend lines drawn by connecting two or more price points and used for trend identification purposes. The trend line also acts as a line of support and resistance.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level where-in the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest.

Resistance: A level where-in the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest.

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.

Risk Reward Ratio: Risk reward ratio is the difference between an entry point to a stop loss and profit level. We suggest ~80% Stop Loss of the Target 1 from the entry point.

The reference date for all price data, volumes, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is November 03, 2021 (Chicago, IL, USA 04.30 AM (GMT -5). The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV. 

Note: Trading decisions require a thorough analysis by investors. Technical reports in general chart out metrics that may be assessed by investors before any commodity evaluation. The above are illustrative analytical factors used for evaluating the commodity; other parameters can be looked at along with additional risks per se.

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