Global Commodity Market Wrap-Up

Last week, commodities witnessed downside in prices with dollar prices testing its 5-months high. Only gold prices settled in green last week among major commodities due to rising concerns over Afghanistan situation, and higher delta variant cases in the US. Silver also showed some strength but settled in red last week. Copper and Lead witnessed a weekly loss of ~5.35% and ~3.56% respectively. On the Energy front, Crude oil prices settled in deep weekly losses of 8.90% amid rising concerns on crude oil demand as various countries are under lockdown with the surging Delta variant cases.

Natural gas witnessed downside correction from higher levels with the slight weekly loss of 0.23% while agricultural commodities also settled in a weak zone last week as Soybean, sugar and Corn prices slide down taking cues from lower crude oil prices.      

In the current week, most of the commodities are trading in a green zone. Recent fall in Dollar Index prices by 0.98% from the highs helped the commodities such as Copper, Gold, Crude etc. to regain their losing price strength. Besides, the recent announcement by China that there are no new COVID-19 cases reported for the first time since July 2021 also de-escalated the rising concerns over the demand of commodities by one of the biggest consumers of commodity raw-materials. Crude Oil prices witnessed sharp upside correction after a heavy sell-off while Natural gas also recovered slightly from the dip recently. In agricultural sector, Soybean and Corn prices are showing positive movement. However, Sugar prices have slipped slightly after making a four and a half years’ high levels.

The upcoming macro events that may impact the market sentiments include an update on Preliminary GDP 2nd Quarter Estimates, US Unemployment Claims, Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, and Core PCE Price Index data released monthly.

Having understood the global commodities performance over the past one week, taking cues from major global economic events, and based on our technical analysis, noted below are our recommendations with the generic insights, entry price, target prices, and stop-loss for Gold Futures (COMEX: GCV1) and Zinc Futures (LME: CMZNV21) for the next 1-2 weeks’ duration:

Gold October Futures Contract (COMEX: GCV1)

Price Action and Technical Indicator Analysis:

COMEX Gold Futures is trading below the downward sloping trend line resistance zone at USD 1845 and continuously facing resistance of the same on the weekly chart. Currently, price is trading in a lower tops and lower bottoms formation. Moreover, the prices are trading below the trend-following indicators 21-period 50-period SMA on a weekly chart, which may act as a crucial resistance level for the prices. The leading indicator RSI (14-period) is trading at ~48.64 level. Now the next crucial support level appears to be at USD 1740, and prices may test that level in the coming sessions (1-2 weeks).

Standard & Poor's Depositary Receipt (SPDR) Gold Holding Analysis:

SPDR is an exchange-traded fund issued by the Investment Management Group, State Street Global Advisors’, trading since 1993 on the American Stock Exchange (AMEX). SPDR holdings can be considered as a directional indicator of Gold prices. The gold ETF holdings at SPDR decreased by 1% to 1,011.61 tons for the week ending August 20, 2021, despite of moderate gains of ~0.33% in the gold prices past week. Notably, Gold SPDR holdings declined by 14.8% YTD with the decrease in gold prices by 8.42% respectively. Normally, both the market indicators are highly correlated and typically move together.

SPDR Holdings versus COMEX Gold Prices

As per the above-mentioned price action and technical indicators analysis, we can conclude that Gold October Futures (GCV1) is looking technically well-placed for a ‘Sell’ rating. Investment decision should be made depending on an investors’ appetite on upside potential, risks, and any previous holdings. This recommendation is purely based on technical analysis, and fundamental analysis has not been considered. Technical summary of our ‘Sell’ recommendation is as follows:

LME Zinc October Futures (LME: CMZNV21)

Price Action and Technical Indicator Analysis:

On the weekly chart, LME Zinc prices are trading in a rising channel pattern and getting support from the lower band of the rising channel pattern. LME Zinc price broke out the downward sloping trend line resistance at USD 2985 level on July 29, 2021. Moreover, stock prices are forming higher tops and higher bottoms, which indicates bullish tone. Moreover, the prices are trading above the trend-following indicators 21-period SMA and 50-period SMA, indicating a bullish trend. The leading indicator RSI (14-period) is trading at ~55.67 level. Now the next crucial resistance level appears to be at USD 3150, and prices may test that level in the coming sessions (1-2 weeks).

As per the above-mentioned price action and technical indicators analysis, we can conclude that LME Zinc October Futures (CMZNV21) is looking technically well-placed for a ‘Buy’ rating. Investment decision should be made depending on an investors’ appetite on upside potential, risks, and any previous holdings. This recommendation is purely based on technical analysis, and fundamental analysis has not been considered. The summary of our ‘Buy’ recommendation is as follows:

Upcoming Major Global Economic Events

Market events occur on a day-to-day basis depending on the frequency of the data and generally include an update on employment, inflation, GDP, WASDE report, consumer sentiments, etc. Noted below are the upcoming week's major global economic events that could impact the commodities prices:

Futures Contract Specifications 

Disclaimers 

Investment Related Risks: Based on the technical analysis, the risks are defined as per risk-reward ratio (~0.80:1.00), however, returns are generated within 1-2 weeks’ time frame. This may be looked at by Investors with sufficient risk appetite looking for returns within short investment duration. Investment recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and fundamental performance of the commodities has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the commodity prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risk, currency risks, and social and political instability risks etc.

Entry Price: For the recommendation(s), the Entry Price is assumed to be at a certain level with a slight deviation on either side. A slight deviation (Example 1.0%-1.5%) on either side in the ‘Entry Price’ can be considered depending upon the upside or downside potential expected and also taking into consideration the Target 1 levels and Stop-loss levels.

Note 1: Investors can consider exiting from the stock if the Target Price mentioned as per the Technical Analysis has been achieved and subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 2: How to Read the Charts?

The Green colour line reflects the 21-period moving average while the red line indicates the 50- period moving average. SMA helps to identify existing price trend. If the prices are trading above the 21-period and 50-period moving average, then it shows prices are currently trading in a bullish trend.

The Black colour line in the chart’s lower segment reflects the Relative Strength Index (14-Period) which indicates price momentum and signals momentum in trend. A reading of 70 or above suggests overbought status while a reading of 30 or below suggests an oversold status.

The Blue colour bars in the chart’s lower segment show the volume of the commodity. Commodity with high volumes is more liquid compared to the lesser ones. Liquidity in commodity helps in easier and faster execution of the order. 

The Orange colour lines are the trend lines drawn by connecting two or more price points and used for trend identification purposes. The trend line also acts as a line of support and resistance.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level where-in the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest.

Resistance: A level where-in the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest.

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.

Risk Reward Ratio: Risk reward ratio is the difference between an entry point to a stop loss and profit level. We suggest ~80% Stop Loss of the Target 1 from the entry point.

The reference date for all price data, volumes, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is August 25, 2021 (Chicago, IL, USA 03.26 AM (GMT -5). The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV. 

Note: Trading decisions require a thorough analysis by investors. Technical reports in general chart out metrics that may be assessed by investors before any commodity evaluation. The above are illustrative analytical factors used for evaluating the commodity; other parameters can be looked at along with additional risks per se.

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