Elders Limited

Kalkine’s Global Tariff Report delivers objective, data-driven insights into key global sectors impacted by tariff fluctuations. It assesses how these changes influence equity valuations across affected industries, with a focus on trade-sensitive sectors that often attract increased investor attention during times of tariff-related uncertainty. The report also highlights defensive and countercyclical segments that tend to show resilience—or even outperformance—amid disruptions in global trade dynamics.

As illustrated in the table below, several key sectors in different countries are directly impacted by the recent tariff announcement from President Trump.

Key Highlights 

Latest Key Developments (as of 3 November 2025) 

1. US-China Trade Deal Reached: On November 1, President Trump announced a landmark economic agreement with Chinese President Xi Jinping, averting a full escalation in the trade war and focusing on rebalancing bilateral trade relations.

2. Fentanyl Tariffs Reduced: Tariffs on Chinese imports linked to fentanyl production will drop from 20% to 10%, effective November 10, 2025, in exchange for China's commitments to curb chemical exports and fentanyl flows to North America.

3. Reciprocal Tariffs on China Paused: The US will suspend heightened "reciprocal" tariffs on Chinese goods for another year, extending the pause until November 10, 2026, to allow for ongoing negotiations.

4. Section 301 Exclusions Extended: Certain tariff exclusions under Section 301, set to expire on November 29, 2025, have been extended to November 10, 2026, providing relief for affected US importers.

5. China Lifts Retaliatory Measures: In response, China will suspend all retaliatory tariffs announced since March 4, 2025, and issue a general license effectively removing export controls on rare earth metals imposed in April and October 2022.

6. 100% Tariff Threat Averted: Trump's October 10 announcement of a potential 100% tariff on all Chinese exports, set for November 1, has been halted as part of the deal, following months of brinkmanship over rare earth restrictions.

7. Canada Tariffs Increased: Trump raised tariffs on Canadian imports by 10% in retaliation for an anti-tariff ad campaign by Ontario, straining US-Canada relations despite the broader North American trade context. 

8. US-India Tariff: As of October 2025, the US-India tariff stalemate persists, with 50% US duties on Indian textiles, gems, and auto parts unchanged, while India holds its tariffs on American goods. The fallout has triggered sharp market volatility, slashing turnover in export sectors like textiles, leather, and gems by up to 50% and squeezing auto margins amid weak demand. Pharma, shielded by exemptions and rising US orders, gained over 3%, while IT and FMCG sectors remain stable, drawing steady investor confidence. 

Global Implications of Tariffs

As of the latest data, Australia’s balance of trade stood at AUD 1,825 million in August 2025, narrowing sharply from AUD 6,612 million in the previous month. Exports declined to AUD 41,858 million from AUD 45,410 million, while imports rose to AUD 40,033 million, reflecting higher domestic demand. The current account deficit improved slightly to AUD 13,654 million in June 2025, remaining at -2% of GDP, as capital inflows increased to AUD 17,669 million. External debt was largely stable at around AUD 2.68 trillion, while the terms of trade index held steady at 114 points in September 2025. Foreign direct investment reached AUD 81 billion in December 2024, highlighting continued investor confidence. Meanwhile, tourist arrivals edged up to 753,320 in August 2025, and gold reserves remained unchanged at 79.87 tonnes. Crude oil production slightly eased to 258,000 barrels per day, maintaining overall output stability.

The below-mentioned factors combine to make Australian agriculture an attractive, resilient investment opportunity amid global tariff concerns and shifting trade dynamics. The sector’s adaptability, policy environment, and access to growing consumer markets support continued growth and profitability:

Amid elevated Market Volatility and Tariff pressures, Elders Limited (ASX: ELD) stands out as a defensive pick within the Agriculture sector, supported by rigorous fundamental and technical research.

Section 1: Company Overview and Fundamentals Insights

Company Overview: Elders Limited (ASX: ELD) is a leading Australian agribusiness providing farm supplies, livestock and wool trading, real estate, and financial services. Operating through its Branch Network, Wholesale Products, and Feed & Processing Services segments, the company offers seeds, fertilizers, animal health products, and rural merchandise, along with livestock auctions, property management, and online trading via AuctionsPlus. Kalkine’s Global Tariff Report covers the Investment Highlights, Key Financial Metrics, Risks, and Technical Analysis along with the Valuation, Target Price, and Recommendation on the stock.

1.2 The Key Positives, Negatives, Investment Highlights, and Risks

1.3 Top 10 Shareholders:

The top 10 shareholders together form ~24.73% of the total shareholding. The Vanguard Group, Inc., and State Street Investment Management Australia Ltd. hold maximum stakes of 4.97% and 4.86%, respectively. 

1.4 Key Metrics: ELD’s EBITDA margin increased to 6.7%in H1FY25 compared to 4.7% in H1FY24. Below is captured other metrics:

Section 2: Business Updates, Financial and Operational Highlights

2.1 Recent Business Updates:

2.2 H1FY25 Results Highlights (for the 06 months ended 31 March 2025): Below mentioned are some key financial highlights:  

2.3 Historical Financial Trend

Section 3: Key Risks and Outlook:

Section 4: Stock Recommendation Summary

4.1 Price Performance and Technical Summary

The stock has decreased by ~4.53% in the last three months, and over the past one year, stock has decreased by ~17.26%. The stock has a 52-week low and 52-week high of AUD 5.730 and AUD 9.000, respectively, and is currently trading below the 52-week high-low average. ELD was last covered in a report dated ‘24 July 2025’.

4.2 Fundamental Valuation and Stock Recommendation

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical tensions prevailing. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance. 

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 03 November 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above. 

Note 4: Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 25-30 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.

Note 5: Dividend Yield may vary as per the stock price movement.     

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.