FTSE All-Share Index (.FTAS) Market Round-Up

Last week, the benchmark FTSE All-Share Index (.FTAS) started on a positive note and made a high of 4096.47. However, till the end of the week, most of the gains vanished and the index settled at 4069.79 with a marginal gain of ~0.09 percent for the week ending July 09, 2021. The recent week started on a flat note and now the prices are gaining strength to breach the 4100 mark. Prices are trading in an ascending channel pattern on the weekly chart and currently facing resistance from the upper band of the pattern. The leading indicator RSI (14-period) is trading at ~64.05 levels and seems supportive of the positive movement. Prices are well placed above the trend-following indicators 21-period and 50-period SMA, further providing strength to the index.

An improved GDP monthly estimate, services output, and production data supported the index to sustain at the higher levels. As per the data released by the Office for National Statistics, the GDP in May 2021 is estimated to grow by 0.8%, the fourth consecutive month of increase. The monthly services out and monthly production also increased by 0.9% and 0.8% respectively between April 2021 and May 2021 and further supported the index.

Global Markets Wrap-Up

Wall Street continued its bullish movement last week, and the two benchmark indices ended in green. S&P 500 settled at 4369.55 with a gain of ~0.40 percent, while NASDAQ Composite Index settled at 14701.92 with a gain of ~0.43 percent for the week ending July 09, 2021. An increase in the US weekly unemployment claims limited the upside gain in the indices. As per the data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, US weekly unemployment claims increased to 373,000 from 371,000 (revised level) in the prior week.

Having understood the US market performance over the past one week, taking cues from major global news, and based on our technical analysis of the FTSE All-Share Index (.FTAS) for the upcoming week, now let us have a look at the two FTSE listed stock picks from the technical standpoint. Noted below are our recommendations based on generic insights, entry price, target prices, and stop-loss for National Grid PLC (LON: NG.) and Grainger PLC (LON: GRI) for the next 2-4 weeks duration:

National Grid PLC 

National Grid (LON: NG.) is an energy company operating in the UK and US. Its businesses involve supplying gas and electricity with a focus on de-carbonisation. The company plans to achieve 90% of imported electricity imported from zero carbon sources by 2030.  Noted below are the key price indicators for the stock:

Price Action Analysis (on the Weekly Chart) 

NG.'s prices broke a descending channel pattern by an upside on May 14, 2021, and since then sustaining above the breakout, indicating an upward direction for the stock. Prices recently started to move upside after taking the support of the upper band of descending channel, further supporting a positive stance. Now the next major resistance level appears at GBX 1074, and prices may test the level in the short-term (2-4 weeks). A further breakout above GBX 1074 backed by volumes may extend buying in the stock till GBX 1152 level.

Technical Indicators Analysis (On the Weekly Chart)

On the weekly chart, RSI (14-period) is trading at ~63.20 levels and indicating a positive trend for the stock. The weekly volumes also seem supportive of an upside movement. The CMP is above the 21-period and 50-period SMA with a positive crossover, further providing support for an upward direction.

Financial Summary:

Summary of the Key Financial Metrics for the past four years for that National Grid PLC is as follows:

General Recommendation:

As per the above-mentioned price action and technical indicators analysis, we can conclude that National Grid PLC is looking technically well-placed on the chart, and we have a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock. Investment decision should be made depending on an investors’ appetite on upside potential, risks, and any previous holdings. This recommendation is purely based on technical analysis, and fundamental analysis has not been considered in this report. The summary of our recommendation is as follows:

Grainger PLC

Grainger PLC (LON: GRI) is a UK-Based residential landlord engaged in the property business. The company focused on the UK’s private rental housing market headquartered in Newcastle upon Tyne. Noted below are the key price indicators for the stock:

Price Action Analysis (on the Weekly Chart)

GRI's prices broke a downward sloping trend line by an upside on May 10, 2021, and since then hovering around the breakout level, indicating an upward direction for the stock. Prices recently started to move upside and for the short-term (2-4 weeks), we may expect continuity of positive movement in the stock. Now the next major resistance level appears at GBX 370 and prices may test the level in the coming sessions.

Technical Indicators Analysis (On the Weekly Chart)

On the weekly chart, RSI is trading at ~60.42 levels and indicating a positive trend for the stock. The weekly volumes also seem supportive of an upside movement. The CMP is above the 21-period and 50-period SMA with a positive crossover, further providing support for an upward direction.

Financial Summary: 

Summary of the Key Financial Metrics for the past four years for Grainger PLC is as follows: 

General Recommendation:

As per the above-mentioned price action and technical indicators analysis, we can conclude that Grainger PLC is looking technically well-placed on the chart, and we have a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock. Investment decision should be made depending on an investors’ appetite for upside potential, risks, and any previous holdings. This recommendation is purely based on technical analysis, and fundamental analysis has not been considered in this report. The summary of our recommendation is as follows:

Upcoming Major Global Economic Events

Market events occur on a day-to-day basis depending on the frequency of the data and generally include an update on employment, inflation, GDP, consumer sentiments, etc. Noted below are the upcoming week's major global economic events that could impact the FTSE All-Share Index and listed stocks’ prices.

Investment Related Risks: Based on the technical analysis, the risks are defined as per risk-reward ratio (~0.60:1.00), however, returns are generated within 2-4 weeks’ time frame. This may be looked at by Investors with sufficient risk appetite looking for returns within short investment duration. Investment recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and fundamental performance of the stocks has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the stock prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risks, currency risks, and social and political instability risks etc.

Entry Price: For the given recommendation(s), Entry Price is assumed be at or above a certain level. However, a slight deviation in the ‘Entry Price’ can be considered depending upon the upside potential expected and also taking into consideration the Target 1 and trailing stop-loss levels indicated. For example:- An Investor can consider to enter the stock at or above a certain range (3%-5%) from the Entry Levels recommended depending upon the potential upside expected and difference from the Target 1 and Trailing-Stop Loss Levels indicated for the stock.

Note 1: Note 1: Investors can consider exiting from the stock if the Target Price mentioned as per the technical analysis has been achieved and subject to the factors discussed above. 

Note 2: How to Read the Charts?

The Green colour line reflects the 21-period moving average while the red line indicates the 50- period moving average. SMA helps to identify existing price trend. If the prices are trading above the 21-period and 50-period moving average, then it shows prices are currently trading in a bullish trend.

The Black colour line in the chart’s lower segment reflects the Relative Strength Index (14-Period) which indicates price momentum and signals momentum in trend. A reading of 70 or above suggests overbought status while a reading of 30 or below suggests an oversold status.

The Blue colour bars in the chart’s lower segment show the volume of the stock. The volume is the number of shares that changed hands during a given day. Stocks with high volumes are more liquid than stocks with lesser volume as liquidity in stocks helps in easier and faster execution of the order.

The Orange colour lines are the trend lines drawn by connecting two or more price points and used for trend identification purposes. The trend line also acts as a line of support and resistance.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level where-in the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest.

Resistance: A level where-in the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest.

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.

Risk Reward Ratio: Risk reward ratio is the difference between an entry point to a stop loss and profit level. We suggest ~60% Stop Loss of the Target 1 from the entry point. 

A trailing stop-loss is a modification of stop-loss in case of favourable movement in the price to protect the gains. We suggest Investors to Trail the Stop-Loss as per the aforementioned levels if the stock price achieves more than 50% of the Target 1. Investors should consider exiting from the position as per the Trailing Stop-Loss level if the price starts moving downwards after achieving more than 50% of the Target 1. 

The reference date for all price data, volumes, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is July 12, 2021. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV. 

Abbreviations

CMP: Current Market Price

SMA: Simple Moving Average

GBP: British pound sterling

GBX: British pence sterling

RSI: Relative Strength Index

USD: United States dollar 

Note: Trading decisions require a thorough analysis by investors. Technical reports in general chart out metrics that may be assessed by investors before any stock evaluation. The above are illustrative analytical factors used for evaluating the stocks; other parameters can be looked at along with additional risks per se. Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

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