FTSE All-Share Index (.FTAS) Market Round-Up

Last week, the benchmark FTSE All-Share Index (.FTAS) started on a flat note; however, in the latter part of the week, it witnessed a bearish movement and settled at 4002.80 with a loss of ~1.65 percent for the week ending July 16, 2021. The recent week started on a sharp bearish tone and prices broke the major psychological support level of 4000 on the downside. Currently, the prices are trading around the lower band of an ascending channel formation and getting support from it. The leading indicator RSI (14-period) is trading at ~49.77 levels and seems supportive of the downside movement. Prices are well placed above the trend-following indicator 50-period SMA; however, trading below the 21-period SMA, which acts as a resistance level for the index.

Global equities are witnessing sell-off due to the spread of the coronavirus' Delta variant which may impact the global economy adversely. An increase in the UK unemployment rate estimates coupled with rising Consumer Price Index (CPI) further acted as the catalyst for a downside direction. As per the Office for National Statistics, the unemployment rate was estimated at 4.8% which is 0.9% points higher versus the pre-covid level. The CPI increased by 2.4% in June 2021 from 2.1% in May 2021.

Global Markets Wrap-Up

Wall Street witnessed a bearish movement last week and the two benchmark indices ended in red. S&P 500 settled at 4327.16 with a loss of ~0.97 percent, while NASDAQ Composite Index settled at 14427.24 with a loss of ~1.87 percent for the week ending July 16, 2021. An increase in inflation data is pressuring the indices at the higher levels. As per the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.9 percent in June and registered the largest 1-month change since June 2008.

Having understood the US market performance over the past one week, taking cues from major global news, and based on our technical analysis of the FTSE All-Share Index (.FTAS) for the upcoming week, now let us have a look at the two FTSE listed stock picks from the technical standpoint. Noted below are our recommendations based on generic insights, entry price, target prices, and stop-loss for Baillie Gifford Shin Nippon PLC (LON: BGS) and XPS Pensions Group PLC (LON: XPS) for the next 2-4 weeks duration:

Baillie Gifford Shin Nippon PLC 

Baillie Gifford Shin Nippon PLC (LON: BGS) is a UK-based investment trust. The company’s focus is to attain long-term growth through investment in securities of small Japanese companies having a market capitalization of less than 150 billion Yens. Noted below are the key price indicators for the stock:

Price Action Analysis (on the Weekly Chart) 

BGS' prices broke a descending channel pattern by an upside on July 06, 2021, and since then hovering around the upper band of the pattern, indicating an upward direction for the stock. Now the next major resistance level appears at GBX 274.40, and prices may test the level in the short-term (2-4 weeks). A further breakout above GBX 274.40 backed by volumes may extend buying in the stock to GBX 285 level.

Technical Indicators Analysis (On the Weekly Chart)

On the weekly chart, RSI (14-period) is trading at ~50.84 levels and indicating a positive trend for the stock. The weekly volumes also seem supportive of an upside movement. The CMP is above the 21-period and providing support for an upward direction; however, the 50-period SMA is above CMP and acts as an immediate resistance level.

Financial Summary:

Summary of the Key Financial Metrics for the past four years for that Baillie Gifford Shin Nippon PLC is as follows:

General Recommendation:

As per the above-mentioned price action and technical indicators analysis, we can conclude that Baillie Gifford Shin Nippon PLC is looking technically well-placed on the chart, and we have a ‘Speculative Buy’ rating on the stock. Investment decision should be made depending on an investors’ appetite on upside potential, risks, and any previous holdings. This recommendation is purely based on technical analysis, and fundamental analysis has not been considered in this report. The summary of our recommendation is as follows:

XPS Pensions Group PLC

XPS Pensions Group PLC (LON: XPS), formerly Xafinity PLC is a holding company. The company specializes in pensions actuarial, administration, and consulting with over 1000 employees in 15 locations across the United Kingdom. Noted below are the key price indicators for the stock:

Price Action Analysis (on the Weekly Chart)

XPS' prices are sustaining above a downward sloping trendline breakout level for the past 2 months, indicating an upward direction for the stock. Prices recently started to move upside after taking the trend line support and for the short-term (2-4 weeks), we may expect continuity of positive movement in the stock. Now the next major resistance level appears at GBX 159, and prices may test the level in the coming sessions. A further breakout above GBX 159 may extend buying in the stock to GBX 168 level.

Technical Indicators Analysis (On the Weekly Chart)

On the weekly chart, RSI is trading at ~56.32 levels and indicating a positive trend for the stock. The weekly volumes also seem supportive of an upside movement. The CMP is above the 21-period and 50-period SMA with a positive crossover, further providing support for an upward direction.

Financial Summary: 

Summary of the Key Financial Metrics for the past four years for XPS Pensions Group PLC is as follows:

General Recommendation:

As per the above-mentioned price action and technical indicators analysis, we can conclude that XPS Pensions Group PLC is looking technically well-placed on the chart, and we have a ‘Speculative Buy’ rating on the stock. Investment decision should be made depending on an investors’ appetite for upside potential, risks, and any previous holdings. This recommendation is purely based on technical analysis, and fundamental analysis has not been considered in this report. The summary of our recommendation is as follows:

Upcoming Major Global Economic Events

Market events occur on a day-to-day basis depending on the frequency of the data and generally include an update on employment, inflation, GDP, consumer sentiments, etc. Noted below are the upcoming week's major global economic events that could impact the FTSE All-Share Index and listed stocks’ prices.

Investment Related Risks: Based on the technical analysis, the risks are defined as per risk-reward ratio (~0.60:1.00), however, returns are generated within 2-4 weeks’ time frame. This may be looked at by Investors with sufficient risk appetite looking for returns within short investment duration. Investment recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and fundamental performance of the stocks has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the stock prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risks, currency risks, and social and political instability risks etc.

Entry Price: For the given recommendation(s), Entry Price is assumed be at or above a certain level. However, a slight deviation in the ‘Entry Price’ can be considered depending upon the upside potential expected and taking into consideration the Target 1 and trailing stop-loss levels indicated. For example: - An Investor can consider entering the stock at or above a certain range (3%-5%) from the Entry Levels recommended depending upon the potential upside expected and difference from the Target 1 and Trailing-Stop Loss Levels indicated for the stock.

Note 1: Note 1: Investors can consider exiting from the stock if the Target Price mentioned as per the technical analysis has been achieved and subject to the factors discussed above. 

Note 2: How to Read the Charts?

The Green colour line reflects the 21-period moving average while the red line indicates the 50- period moving average. SMA helps to identify existing price trend. If the prices are trading above the 21-period and 50-period moving average, then it shows prices are currently trading in a bullish trend.

The Black colour line in the chart’s lower segment reflects the Relative Strength Index (14-Period) which indicates price momentum and signals momentum in trend. A reading of 70 or above suggests overbought status while a reading of 30 or below suggests an oversold status.

The Blue colour bars in the chart’s lower segment show the volume of the stock. The volume is the number of shares that changed hands during a given day. Stocks with high volumes are more liquid than stocks with lesser volume as liquidity in stocks helps in easier and faster execution of the order.

The Orange colour lines are the trend lines drawn by connecting two or more price points and used for trend identification purposes. The trend line also acts as a line of support and resistance.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level where-in the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest.

Resistance: A level where-in the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest.

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.

Risk Reward Ratio: Risk reward ratio is the difference between an entry point to a stop loss and profit level. We suggest ~60% Stop Loss of the Target 1 from the entry point. 

A trailing stop-loss is a modification of stop-loss in case of favourable movement in the price to protect the gains. We suggest Investors to Trail the Stop-Loss as per the aforementioned levels if the stock price achieves more than 50% of the Target 1. Investors should consider exiting from the position as per the Trailing Stop-Loss level if the price starts moving downwards after achieving more than 50% of the Target 1. 

The reference date for all price data, volumes, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is July 19, 2021. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV. 

Abbreviations

CMP: Current Market Price

SMA: Simple Moving Average

GBP: British pound sterling

GBX: British pence sterling

RSI: Relative Strength Index

USD: United States dollar 

Note: Trading decisions require a thorough analysis by investors. Technical reports in general chart out metrics that may be assessed by investors before any stock evaluation. The above are illustrative analytical factors used for evaluating the stocks; other parameters can be looked at along with additional risks per se. Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

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