Goeasy Ltd

Kalkine's Global Tariff Report offers independent, data-driven analysis of key global sectors impacted by tariff adjustments. It evaluates the potential implications these changes may have on equity valuations within those industries. The report prioritizes trade-sensitive sectors, which typically face increased investor scrutiny during periods of tariff uncertainty, while also identifying defensive and countercyclical segments that demonstrate resilience or potential for outperformance amidst global trade disruptions.

As illustrated in the table below, several key sectors in different countries are directly impacted by the recent tariff announcement from President Trump.

Key Developments (June 30, 2025) 

CANADA 

• Canada rescinds Digital Services Tax: Canada canceled its planned ~3% DST on U.S. tech firms (scheduled for June 30), pausing collection and moving to repeal the legislation in hopes of reviving trade negotiations with the U.S. Talks have restarted, aiming for a deal by July 21, 2025.
• U.S. halts negotiations: President Trump abruptly ended trade discussions, citing the DST as a “blatant attack.” A potential Section 301 investigation into the DST is now looming.
• Canada’s Steel & Aluminum counter measures:
  • Imposed a ~50% surtax via tariff-rate quotas (TRQs) on steel imports from non-FTA countries exceeding 2024 levels, effective June 27, 2025. To be reviewed within 30 days.

• Ottawa threatens to raise U.S. metal tariffs (currently at ~25%) to match U.S. levels on July 21, 2025, unless a trade deal materializes.
• Impact on Canadian steel sector: Industry groups report that U.S. metal tariffs have already led to ~1,000 layoffs and warn that current Canadian measures are insufficient protection. Canada is exploring additional support, export restrictions, and exclusion of U.S. firms from government contracts.

CHINA 

• Tariff Escalation: Earlier in the year, China retaliated with ~10 - ~15% tariffs on U.S. meat, coal, LNG, and machinery, a baseline that peaked at ~125% before being dialed back following initial deals in May and June.

EUROPEAN UNION 

• Retaliation Preparations: The EU strongly regrets the US decision to double steel and aluminum tariffs to ~50%. Brussels says it is ready to impose countermeasures as early as July 14, 2025, unless a deal is reached.
• Trade Negotiations: EU leaders recently received a fresh US trade proposal and continue discussions. Ursula von der Leyen stated “all options remain on the table” ahead of the July 9, 2025 deadline.
• Industry Pressure: EU metals producers, led by Eurofer and European Aluminium are calling for export curbs on scrap metal after U.S. tariffs triggered a surge in European scrap shipments.
• 10% Flat-Tariff Offer: Reports indicate Brussels is considering accepting a flat ~10% tariff from the US on exports to avoid harsher penalties, but this is still unconfirmed.

In April 2025, Canada’s total trade in goods and services dropped to CAD ~78.38 bn in exports and CAD ~85.86 bn in imports, resulting in a record CAD ~7.48 bn deficit. Merchandise exports slid 10.8% to CAD ~60.44 bn, the lowest since June 2023, mainly due to pressures from new US tariffs, particularly on vehicles. Service exports stood at CAD ~17.94 bn, while service imports were CAD 18.28 bn. Exports to the U.S. decreased by 15.7%, though shipments to other countries increased by 2.9%. On the import side, motor vehicle imports led a 3.5% decline, partially offset by a surge in precious metals. These dynamics highlight the steep impact of bilateral tariffs on Canada’s trade balance.

Amid elevated Market Volatility and Tariff pressures, Goeasy Ltd. (TSX: GSY) stands out as our defensive pick within the Financial sector, supported by rigorous fundamental and technical research. 

Section1: Company Overview and Fundamental Insights:

Goeasy Ltd (TSX: GSY) provides financial services to own furniture, electronics, computers, and appliances. It offers merchandise leasing of household furnishings, appliances, and home electronic products to consumers under weekly or monthly leasing agreements. The company also offers unsecured installment loans to consumers. Its reportable business segments include easyhome and easyfinancial, of which it derives maximum revenue from easyfinancial segment.

Kalkine’s Global Tariff Report covers the Investment Highlights, Key Financial Metrics, Risks, Technical Analysis along with the Valuation, Target Price, and Recommendation on the stock.

The top 10 shareholders together form ~31.03% of the total shareholding. Johnson (Donald K) and Ingram (David) hold a maximum stake in the company at ~18.29% and ~1.96%, respectively.

The company reported rising financials in Q1 2025, where it clocked healthy growth under its Revenue from Interest Income and Commissions Earned, which is a key positive. Furthermore, it witnessed industry beating margins and elevated EBITDA and Operating Income, displaying its strength.

Section 2: Business Updates and Financial Highlights

The picture below gives an overview of the company’s recent activities, such as an announcement regarding Loan Portfolio Milestone and Dividend Declaration.

Section 3: Key Risks and Company Outlook

Section 4: Stock Recommendation Summary

The stock has witnessed an upside of ~0.84% and ~7.16% over the last 1 week and 1 month respectively. Moreover, it is trading below the average 52-week high price of CAD 206.02 and 52-week low price of CAD 134.01, providing an opportunity to accumulate the stock.

Valuation Methodology: Price to Book Value Based Relative Valuation (Illustrative):

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macroeconomic issues and geopolitical tensions prevailing. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is June 27, 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: Dividend Yield may vary as per the stock price movement. 

Note 5: Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 25-30 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice. 

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock. 

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock. 

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.