Mixed Performance in Commodities Market Last Week, One Commodity Above Support Level – Soybean

Global Commodity Market Wrap-Up

The metals market ended last week on a mixed note, weighed down by uncertainty over potential interest rate cuts and easing trade tensions with China. Gold dropped 3.41%, while silver declined 0.88%. Among industrial metals, copper fell 0.68%, whereas lead inched up 0.19% and zinc rose 1.09%. Overall, the market reflected cautious optimism as investors awaited key economic data and further developments on the U.S. government shutdown.

Natural gas declined 3.23% last week amid ample supply despite rising seasonal demand. Crude oil slipped 0.85%, pressured by OPEC’s production outlook and persistent trade-related uncertainties. Meanwhile, U.S. sugar fell 3.61%, and other agricultural commodities traded largely subdued. The week’s overall performance highlighted the ongoing influence of supply-demand dynamics and broader global macroeconomic factors, with upcoming economic data releases and potential interest rate decisions likely to shape near-term trends in commodity prices.

Global commodities ended last week on a mixed note, influenced by uncertainty over potential interest rate cuts and easing trade relations with China. Precious metals hovered near recent highs, while crude oil softened amid trade-related concerns and OPEC’s production outlook. Natural gas declined amid ample supply, and copper weakened on reduced industrial demand. Agricultural commodities remained largely steady, supported by stable consumption and steady weather conditions. Market attention now turns to upcoming economic data and policy announcements that could shape near-term commodity trends and overall investor sentiment.

The upcoming Micro and Macroeconomic events that may impact on market sentiments include an update ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS Job Openings, ISM NON-Manufacturing PMI, Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.

Having understood the global commodities’ performance over the past week, taking cues from major global economic events, and based on technical analysis, noted below is the recommendation with generic insights, entry price, target prices, and stop-loss Soybean January Future (CBOT: SF26) for the next 2-4-week duration:

Soybean January Future (CBOT: SF26)

Price Action and Technical Indicator Analysis: January soybean futures are trading above a key horizontal resistance level, showing signs of stabilization and forming higher highs that indicate continued momentum. The 21-period and 50-period SMAs below current levels provide near-term support. Recent bullish candlesticks and an RSI of 81.03 signal strong upside potential. Even if prices break the resistance, the trend remains in an active momentum phase, but a sustained move above the resistance is needed to confirm the continuation of the bullish trend.

Now the next crucial resistance levels appear to be at USc 1200.00 and USc 1225.00, and prices may test these levels in the coming periods (2-4 weeks).

Source: REFINITIV; Analysis: Kalkine Group

As per the above-mentioned price action and technical indicators analysis, Soybean January Future (CBOT: SF26) is looking technically well-placed for a ‘Buy’ rating. Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual’s appetite for downside potential, risks, and any previous holdings. This recommendation is purely based on technical analysis, and fundamental analysis has not been considered in this report. Technical summary of the ‘Buy’ recommendation is as follows:

Upcoming Major Global Economic Events

Market events occur on a day-to-day basis depending on the frequency of the data and generally include an update on employment, inflation, GDP, WASDE report, consumer sentiments, etc. Noted below are the upcoming week's major global economic events that could impact commodities’ prices:

Futures Contract Specifications

Disclaimers

Related Risks: Based on the technical analysis, the risks are defined as per risk-reward ratio (~0.80:1.00), however, returns are generated within a 2-4 weeks’ time frame. This may be looked at by Individuals with sufficient risk appetite looking for returns within short investment duration. The investment recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the commodities has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact commodity prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risk, currency risks, and social and political instability risks etc.

Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Note 2: Individuals can consider exiting from the commodity if the Target Price mentioned as per the Technical Analysis has been achieved and subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 3: How to Read the Charts?

The Green colour line reflects the 21-period moving average while the red line indicates the 50- period moving average. SMA helps to identify existing price trend. If the prices are trading above the 21-period and 50-period moving average, then it shows prices are currently trading in a bullish trend.

The Black colour line in the chart’s lower segment reflects the Relative Strength Index (14-Period) which indicates price momentum and signals momentum in trend. A reading of 70 or above suggests overbought status while a reading of 30 or below suggests an oversold status.

The Blue colour bars in the chart’s lower segment show the volume of the commodity. Commodity with high volumes is more liquid compared to the lesser ones. Liquidity in commodity helps in easier and faster execution of the order.

The Orange colour lines are the trend lines drawn by connecting two or more price points and used for trend identification purposes. The trend line also acts as a line of support and resistance.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or Selling interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or Selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.

Risk Reward Ratio: The risk reward ratio is the difference between an entry point to a stop loss and profit level. This report is based on ~80% Stop Loss of the Target 1 from the entry point.

The reference date for all price data, volumes, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 03^rd November 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note: Trading decisions require a thorough analysis by individuals. Technical reports, in general, chart out metrics that may be assessed by individuals before any commodity evaluation. The above are illustrative analytical factors used for evaluating the commodity; other parameters can be looked at along with additional risks per side.