Global Commodity Market Wrap-Up

Last week, various commodity price segments witnessed mixed reaction with Russia’s announcement to cut back its military operations in Kyiv de-escalates ongoing tension between Russia and Ukraine. Besides, rising US dollar index also weighed on some commodities like Gold and Silver which settled at a 1.80% and 3.72% weekly losses. Base metals is the only commodity segment which shined last week due to persistent energy crisis. Zinc and Lead prices have witnessed a weekly surge of 7.61% and 3.91% respectively while Copper prices also witnessed marginal weekly gains of 0.90%.

On the Energy front, Crude oil prices have declined sharply from higher levels due to new lockdown restrictions in China amid increasing COVID-19 cases further raising concerns on Crude oil demand. Crude oil prices settled at a weekly loss of -12.84%. On the contrary, Natural gas prices are steadily moving upwards considering good buying pattern technically with good volume support. Natural gas prices settled at a weekly gain of 1.94%. However, Agricultural commodity prices have traded with a negative bias as Soybean and Corn prices witnessed 7.46% and 2.52% weekly declines respectively.

In the recent week, primarily all the commodity prices are trading in a positive zone due to rising volatility in the markets. Traders are having a close eye on the upcoming Fed meeting results that might further decide the future price direction of the commodities.  Precious metal prices are initially trading in a weak tone but still trading in a good buying zone. Base metals is currently trading in a mixed tone in the existing week. On energy front, Crude oil and Natural gas prices are reversing from key support levels. Agricultural commodity basket is also taking support in line with rise in commodity segments in the current week.

The upcoming macro events that may impact the market sentiments include an update on FOMC Meeting Minutes, Unemployment Claims data, Natural Gas Inventories and US Consumer Price Index data released monthly.

Having understood the global commodities performance over the past one week, taking cues from major global economic events, and based on our technical analysis, noted below are our recommendations with the generic insights, entry price, target prices, and stop-loss for Natural Gas May Futures (NYMEX: NGK22) and Lumber May Futures (CME: LBK2) for the next 1-2 weeks:     

NYMEX Natural Gas May Futures Contract (NYMEX: NGK22)

Price Action and Technical Indicator Analysis:

On the weekly chart, NYMEX Natural gas prices recently broke an upward sloping trend line by upside and the prices are sustaining above the breakout level from past three weeks that indicates prices are likely to move up further in the coming sessions. Prices are also trading above its 21-period and 50-period SMA that is supportive for the price action. Further, RSI (14-period) is trading at ~75.38 level, which indicates positive price momentum. Now the next crucial resistance levels appear to be at USD 6.48 and USD 7.40 and the prices may test these levels in the coming sessions (1-2 weeks).                           

As per the above-mentioned price action and technical indicators analysis, we can conclude that NYMEX Natural Gas May Futures (NCK22) is looking technically well-placed for a ‘Buy’ rating. Investment decisions should be made depending on an investors’ appetite for upside potential, risks, and any previous holdings. This recommendation is purely based on technical analysis, and fundamental analysis has not been considered. The technical summary of our ‘Buy’ recommendations is as follows:

CME Lumber May Futures Contract (CME: LBK2)

Price Action and Technical Indicator Analysis:

On the daily chart, CME Lumber prices recently broke support level of USD 951 by downside and also took resistance of the downward sloping trend line that indicates prices are likely to go down further in the coming sessions. Prices are also trading below its 21-period and 50-period SMA that is indicating that the prices are trading in a weak tone. Further, RSI (14-period) is trading at ~32.90 level, which indicates weak price momentum. Now the next crucial support levels appear to be at USD 869.86 and USD 779.80 and the prices may test these levels in the coming sessions (1-2 weeks).   

As per the above-mentioned price action and technical indicators analysis, we can conclude that CME Lumber May Futures (LBK2) is looking technically well-placed for a ‘Sell’ rating. Investment decisions should be made depending on an investors’ appetite for upside potential, risks, and any previous holdings. This recommendation is purely based on technical analysis, and fundamental analysis has not been considered. The technical summary of our ‘Sell’ recommendations is as follows:

Upcoming Major Global Economic Events

Market events occur on a day-to-day basis depending on the frequency of the data and generally include an update on employment, inflation, GDP, WASDE report, consumer sentiments, etc. Noted below are the upcoming week's major global economic events that could impact the commodities prices:

Futures Contract Specifications 

Disclaimers 

Investment Related Risks: Based on the technical analysis, the risks are defined as per risk-reward ratio (~0.80:1.00), however, returns are generated within 1-2 weeks’ time frame. This may be looked at by Investors with sufficient risk appetite looking for returns within short investment duration. Investment recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and fundamental performance of the commodities has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the commodity prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risk, currency risks, and social and political instability risks etc.

Entry Price: For the given recommendation(s), the Entry Price is assumed to be at or above/ at or below a certain level. However, a slight deviation in the 'Entry Price' can be considered depending upon the upside/downside potential expected and taking into consideration the Target levels indicated. For example: - An Investor can consider entering the commodity at or above/ at or below a certain range (1%-1.5%) from the Entry Levels recommended depending upon the potential upside/downside expected. Therefore, there can be a slight deviation between the ‘Entry Price’ and the ‘Current Market Price (CMP)’. The ‘Entry Price’ indicated above may or may not be same as the ‘CMP’ shown in the price chart.

Note 1: Investors can consider exiting from the commodity if the Target Price mentioned as per the Technical Analysis has been achieved and subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 2: How to Read the Charts?

The Green colour line reflects the 21-period moving average while the red line indicates the 50- period moving average. SMA helps to identify existing price trend. If the prices are trading above the 21-period and 50-period moving average, then it shows prices are currently trading in a bullish trend.

The Black colour line in the chart’s lower segment reflects the Relative Strength Index (14-Period) which indicates price momentum and signals momentum in trend. A reading of 70 or above suggests overbought status while a reading of 30 or below suggests an oversold status.

The Blue colour bars in the chart’s lower segment show the volume of the commodity. Commodity with high volumes is more liquid compared to the lesser ones. Liquidity in commodity helps in easier and faster execution of the order. 

The Orange colour lines are the trend lines drawn by connecting two or more price points and used for trend identification purposes. The trend line also acts as a line of support and resistance.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level where-in the commodity prices tend to find support if they are falling, and downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest.

Resistance: A level where-in the commodity prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest.

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the commodity prices.

Risk Reward Ratio: The risk reward ratio is the difference between an entry point to a stop loss and profit level. We suggest ~80% Stop Loss of the Target 1 from the entry point.

The reference date for all price data, volumes, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is April 06, 2022 (Chicago, IL, USA 03.25 AM (GMT -5). The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV. 

Note: Trading decisions require a thorough analysis by investors. Technical reports in general chart out metrics that may be assessed by investors before any commodity evaluation. The above are illustrative analytical factors used for evaluating the commodity; other parameters can be looked at along with additional risks per se.

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