Par Pacific Holdings, Inc.

Section 1: Company Overview and Fundamentals

1.1 Company Overview:

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: PARR) is an energy company, which provides both renewable and conventional fuels to the western United States. It owns and operates 125,000 barrels per day of combined refining capacity across three locations and an energy infrastructure network, including 7.6 million barrels of storage, and marine, rail, rack and pipeline assets. The Company has three segments. Refining segment owns and operates four refineries with total operating crude oil throughput capacity of 219 thousand barrels per day (Mbpd)

Kalkine’s US Diversified Opportunities Report covers the Company Overview, Key positives & negatives, Investment summary, Key investment metrics, Top 10 shareholding, Business updates and insights into company recent financial results, Key Risks & Outlook, Price performance and technical summary, Target Price, and Recommendation on the stock.

Stock Performance:

• The stock has corrected by 11.83% in the last three months as well as by 17.69% in past nine months.
• The stock is leaning towards the lower band of its 52-week range of USD 40.20 and 52-week low price of USD 11.86, with the current price near an important support zone of USD 13.00-USD 14.00, with expectations of upward momentum, if these levels sustains.
• The price is currently below both its short-term (50-day) SMA and long-term (200-day) SMA, with the current RSI of 48.08, upward trending with expectations of upward momentum, if the support levels hold.

1.2 The Key Positives, Negatives, and Investment summary

1.3 Top 10 shareholders:

The top 10 shareholders together form ~50.39% of the total shareholding, signifying concentrated shareholding. BlackRock Institutional Trust Company, N.A., and The Vanguard Group, Inc. are the biggest shareholders, holding the maximum stake in the company at ~14.54% and ~7.77%, respectively.

1.4 Key Metrics:

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR) exhibited a mixed financial trajectory from 2020 to 2024, with revenue growing from USD3,124.87 million in 2020 to a peak of USD8,231.96 million in 2023, before declining to USD7,974.46 million in 2024, reflecting a 3.1% drop likely due to market volatility and operational challenges such as the Wyoming refinery incident in early 2025. Gross profit, however, showed significant improvement over the period, moving from a loss of USD190.29 million in 2020 to a profit of USD788.43 million in 2023, though it decreased to USD157.44 million in 2024, a sharp 80% drop, indicating pressures on profitability. The gross margin percentage mirrored this trend, improving from a negative 6.09% in 2020 to 9.58% in 2023, but falling to 1.97% in 2024, underscoring the impact of lower refining margins, as seen in the Q4 2024 Hawaii Index dropping to USD5.52 per barrel from USD12.48 in Q4 2023. This analysis highlights Par Pacific’s ability to grow revenue over the years, driven by strong Retail and Logistics segments, but also reveals vulnerability to refining segment challenges and market conditions affecting profitability in 2024.

Section 2: Business Updates and Corporate Business Highlights

2.1 Recent Updates:

The below picture gives an overview of the recent updates:

2.2 Insights of FY24:

Section 3: Key Risks & Outlook:

Section 4: Stock Recommendation Summary:

4.1 Price Performance and Technical Summary:

Stock Performance:

• The stock has corrected by 11.83% in the last three months as well as by 17.69% in past nine months.
• The stock is leaning towards the lower band of its 52-week range of USD 40.20 and 52-week low price of USD 11.86, with the current price near an important support zone of USD 13.00-USD 14.00, with expectations of upward momentum, if these levels sustains.
• The price is currently below both its short-term (50-day) SMA and long-term (200-day) SMA, with the current RSI of 48.08, upward trending with expectations of upward momentum, if the support levels hold.

4.2 Fundamental Valuation

Valuation Methodology: Price/Earnings Multiple Based Relative Valuation

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macroeconomic issues and geopolitical tensions prevailing. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is March 26, 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: The report publishing date is as per the Pacific Time Zone.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.

 Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect against further losses in case of unfavorable movement in the stock prices.