Global Commodity Market Wrap-Up

Commodities prices continued to trade in a mixed tone last week, as a rising US dollar index and lacklustre trade activities in commodities have kept the prices in a range. Gold prices continued their downward trajectory last week and settled with a weekly loss of 2.59%, while silver prices surged and settled at a weekly gain of 2.59%. Base metals declined marginally last week. Notably, Lead and Zinc prices have witnessed a weekly decline of 1.70% and 0.11%, respectively, while Copper prices settled with a marginal weekly loss of 0.83%.

On the Energy front, Crude Oil prices traded in a range with a weak tone and settled at a weekly loss of 1.94%. Also, natural gas prices broke a head and shoulders (bearish pattern) on the downside last week and settled at a weekly loss of 2.90%. Meanwhile, agricultural commodities prices were traded in mixed tone.

Except for agricultural commodities, most of the commodities are trading in a negative tone this week. Market participants are now waiting for the FOMC Statement, which might bring volatility back into the commodities market. The prices of precious metals are showing a gradual decline while Base metals are also experiencing less volatility and are trading in a weak tone. On the energy front, crude oil prices are trading in weak territory. The agricultural commodities basket is the only segment that is showing some strength in the existing week.

The upcoming macroeconomic events that may impact the market sentiments include an update on FOMC Statement, US Existing Home Sales data, and Unemployment Insurance Claims released weekly.

Having understood the global commodities performance over the past one week, taking cues from major global economic events, and based on technical analysis, noted below is the recommendation with the generic insights, entry price, target prices, and stop-loss for Natural Gas November Futures (NYMEX: NGX22) for the next 1-2 weeks duration:

Natural Gas November Futures Contract (NYMEX: NGX22) 

Price Action and Technical Indicator Analysis:

NYMEX Natural Gas November Futures' prices recently broke a neckline of the head and shoulder pattern (Bearish pattern) by the downside and are sustaining below the breakdown level, indicating the possibility of a downtrend. Moreover, prices are trading below the 21-period and 50-period SMA on a daily chart, further supporting the downtrend. The leading indicator RSI (14-period) is moving below the midpoint and showing a reading of ~42.85 levels, which indicates a weak trend. 

Now the next crucial support levels appear to be at USD 7.000 and USD 6.800, and prices may test these levels in the coming sessions (1-2 weeks). 

As per the above-mentioned price action and technical indicators analysis, Natural Gas November Futures (NYMEX: NGX22) is looking technically well-placed for a ‘Sell’ rating. Investment decision should be made depending on an individual’s appetite for upside potential, risks, and any previous holdings. This recommendation is purely based on technical analysis, and fundamental analysis has not been considered in this report. Technical summary of ‘Sell’ recommendation is as follows:

Upcoming Major Global Economic Events

Market events occur on a day-to-day basis depending on the frequency of the data and generally include an update on employment, inflation, GDP, WASDE report, consumer sentiments, etc. Noted below are the upcoming week's major global economic events that could impact the commodities prices:

Futures Contract Specifications

 Disclaimers 

Related Risks: Based on the technical analysis, the risks are defined as per risk-reward ratio (~0.80:1.00), however, returns are generated within 1-2 weeks’ time frame. This may be looked at by Individuals with sufficient risk appetite looking for returns within short investment duration. Investment recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and fundamental performance of the commodities has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the commodity prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risk, currency risks, and social and political instability risks etc.

Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Note 2: Individuals can consider exiting from the commodity if the Target Price mentioned as per the Technical Analysis has been achieved and subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 3: How to Read the Charts?

The Green colour line reflects the 21-period moving average while the red line indicates the 50- period moving average. SMA helps to identify existing price trend. If the prices are trading above the 21-period and 50-period moving average, then it shows prices are currently trading in a bullish trend.

The Black colour line in the chart’s lower segment reflects the Relative Strength Index (14-Period) which indicates price momentum and signals momentum in trend. A reading of 70 or above suggests overbought status while a reading of 30 or below suggests an oversold status.

The Blue colour bars in the chart’s lower segment show the volume of the commodity. Commodity with high volumes is more liquid compared to the lesser ones. Liquidity in commodity helps in easier and faster execution of the order. 

The Orange colour lines are the trend lines drawn by connecting two or more price points and used for trend identification purposes. The trend line also acts as a line of support and resistance.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock. 

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock. 

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices. 

Risk Reward Ratio: The risk reward ratio is the difference between an entry point to a stop loss and profit level. This report is based on ~80% Stop Loss of the Target 1 from the entry point.

The reference date for all price data, volumes, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is September 21, 2022 (Chicago, IL, USA 2.50 AM (GMT -5). The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV. 

Note: Trading decisions require a thorough analysis by individuals. Technical reports in general chart out metrics that may be assessed by individuals before any commodity evaluation. The above are illustrative analytical factors used for evaluating the commodity; other parameters can be looked at along with additional risks per se.

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