The Trade Desk Inc

Section 1: Company Overview and Fundamentals

1.1 Company Overview:

The Trade Desk Inc (NASDAQ: TTD) is a worldwide advertising technology firm that provides a cloud-based, self-service platform. This platform enables clients to design, execute, optimize, and evaluate highly data-driven digital advertising campaigns with greater precision and flexibility.

Kalkine’s American Technology Report covers the Company Overview, Key positives & negatives, Investment summary, Key investment metrics, Top 10 shareholding, Business updates and insights into company recent financial results, Key Risks & Outlook, Price performance and technical summary, Target Price, and Recommendation on the stock.

Stock Performance:

• The stock witnessed a strong downtrend from late 2024 through March 2025, with a steep decline from above USD 120 to a low near USD 50. Since late April 2025, the stock has entered a gradual recovery phase, forming a series of higher lows and higher highs.
• The 21-day MA has crossed above the 50-day MA, which is a bullish signal (Golden Cross) indicating potential upward momentum. The price is currently above both moving averages, reinforcing the short-term bullish bias.
• The RSI is at 64.94, approaching the overbought threshold of 70, suggesting that while the momentum is positive, the stock may face resistance or consolidation in the near term.
• A notable surge in volume is observed in the most recent trading session (9.54M), which could imply institutional buying interest or a strong breakout attempt.

1.2 The Key Positives, Negatives, and Investment summary

1.3 Top 10 shareholders:

The top 10 shareholders together form ~ 37.43% of the total shareholding, signifying dispersed shareholding. The Vanguard Group, Inc. and Baillie Gifford & Co. are the biggest shareholders, holding the maximum stake in the company at 9.83% and 7.01%, respectively.

1.4 Key Metrics:

The Trade Desk’s revenue shows a consistent upward trend from USD 491.3 million in Q1 FY24 to a peak of USD 741 million in Q4 FY24, followed by a modest dip to USD 616 million in Q1 FY25. Net income follows a similar growth pattern, rising significantly from USD 31.7 million in Q1 FY24 to USD 182.2 million in Q4 FY24, before declining to USD 50.7 million in Q1 FY25. This Q1 FY25 pullback in both revenue and net income reflects seasonality, wherein Q4 typically benefits from higher ad spending during the holiday season, while Q1 usually sees softer demand. Additionally, as per the financial disclosures, increased operating expenses in platform operations, technology, and marketing (driven partly by higher stock-based compensation) compressed margins. While the company maintained strong year-over-year growth in Q1 FY25 (+25% in revenue), the quarter-over-quarter decline was expected and driven by post-holiday normalization and elevated costs tied to strategic investments and workforce compensation.

Section 2: Business Updates and Corporate Business Highlights

2.1 Recent Business Updates

2.2 Insights of Q1FY25:

Section 3: Key Risks & Outlook

Section 4: Stock Recommendation Summary:

4.1 Price Performance and Technical Summary:

Stock Performance:

• The stock witnessed a strong downtrend from late 2024 through March 2025, with a steep decline from above USD 120 to a low near USD 50. Since late April 2025, the stock has entered a gradual recovery phase, forming a series of higher lows and higher highs.
• The 21-day MA has crossed above the 50-day MA, which is a bullish signal (Golden Cross) indicating potential upward momentum. The price is currently above both moving averages, reinforcing the short-term bullish bias.
• The RSI is at 64.94, approaching the overbought threshold of 70, suggesting that while the momentum is positive, the stock may face resistance or consolidation in the near term.
• A notable surge in volume is observed in the most recent trading session (9.54M), which could imply institutional buying interest or a strong breakout attempt.

 4.2 Fundamental Valuation

Valuation Methodology: Price/Earnings per share Multiple Based Relative Valuation

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macroeconomic issues and geopolitical tensions prevailing. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is July 21, 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: The report publishing date is as per the Pacific Time Zone.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.

 Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.

 Stop-loss: It is a level to protect against further losses in case of unfavorable movement in the stock prices.