Just Group PLC (LSE: JUST)

Just Group PLC (LSE: JUST) is a constituent of the FTSE 250 Index, operates as a specialist provider in the UK retirement income sector. The company delivers scalable retirement solutions to a diverse client base comprising financial institutions such as banks, building societies, insurers, pension trustees, and corporate entities. Its insurance division focuses on retirement-oriented products, notably Guaranteed Income for Life Solutions and Defined Benefit schemes.

Key Recommendation Rationale – Sell at GBX 211.69

• Resistance near Current levels: JUST’s stock price has breached Resistance (R2) which was stated in the previous report on 15 July 2025 therefore, there can be a possibility of a decline from resistance levels. Considering the market conditions and the price action, it is prudent to exit the stock.
• Reduced IFRS Profit Despite Decent Operating Results: While Just Group has reported a substantial increase in underlying operating profit (up 34% to £504 million), the IFRS profit before tax declined to £113 million in FY24, down from £172m in FY23. This divergence stems primarily from the deferral of profit into the Contractual Service Margin (CSM) and lower non-operating gains compared to the previous year. From an external viewpoint, this may create difficulty for generalist investors or analysts less familiar with insurance accounting to reconcile strong operating momentum with headline profitability trends. It could also obscure how efficiently current business performance is converting into reported statutory profits.
• New Business Margin Trending Lower - The Group’s new business margin fell modestly from 9.1% in FY23 to 8.7% in FY24, primarily due to business mix and tighter credit spreads. While still within a healthy range, this slight decline might prompt some concern about the sustainability of margins going forward, especially as competition in the DB de-risking and GIfL markets increases. Observers could question whether scale benefits and operational improvements will continue to offset potential pressures on pricing in a maturing market.

Valuation Methodology: Price/ Earnings Approach

Share Price Chart  

 JUST Daily Technical Chart, Source - Refinitiv

Conclusion

JUST is expected to trade at a discount, considering the New Business Margin Trending Lower and fears of global slowdown. For conducting the valuation, the following peers have been considered - Admiral Group PLC (LSE: ADM), Prudential PLC (LSE: PRU) and others.

Given its current trading levels, Reduced IFRS Profit Despite Decent Operating Results in FY24, recent rally in the share price, relative valuation, and associated risks, it is prudent to exit the stock at the current levels. Hence, a ‘Sell’ recommendation is given on the stock at the current Market Price of GBX 211.69 as of 31 July 2025 at 11:11 AM GMT+1.

Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 31 July 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: Target Price refers to a price level which the stock is expected to reach as per the relative valuation method and/or technical analysis taking into consideration both short-term and long-term scenario.

Note 5: ‘Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from the London Stock Exchange (LSE) and or REFINITIV. Typically, both sources (LSE and or REFINITIV) may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 15-20 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.’

Note 6: Dividend Yield may vary as per the stock price movement.