BP PLC (LSE: BP.)

BP PLC (LSE: BP.) is an FTSE 100-listed multinational oil and gas company with a global energy business spread across Australasia, Asia, Africa, Europe, North and South America. This Report covers the Key Recommendation Rationale, Conclusion, and Recommendation on the stock.

Key Recommendation Rationale – Sell at GBX 445.80

• Resistance near Current levels: BP’s stock price has approached Resistance (R1) which was stated in the previous report on 17 September 2025 therefore, there can be a possibility of a decline from resistance levels. Considering the market conditions and the price action, it is prudent to exit the stock.
• Decline in Underlying Profit and Continued Tax Pressure - While BP remained profitable, its underlying replacement cost (RC) profit of $2.2 billion in Q3 2025 was slightly below the previous quarter ($2.4 billion) and down compared to 2024 levels. This moderation in profitability highlights the impact of weaker oil trading results and lower realizations across energy segments. Additionally, the company’s effective tax rate rose to 53%, with an underlying ETR of 39%, partly due to changes in the geographical mix of earnings — further constraining net profit growth.
• Rising Impairments and Weak Trading Performance - BP’s Q3 results included net impairments and losses on asset sales of $0.8 billion, continuing a pattern of asset write-downs that have weighed on recent quarters. Furthermore, the company reported a “weak oil trading contribution”, which contrasts with historically decent trading results that often-offset market volatility. These factors suggest ongoing headwinds in portfolio efficiency and trading operations, impacting overall earnings resilience.

Valuation Methodology: Price/ Earnings Approach

Share Price Chart  

 BP Daily Technical Chart, Source - Refinitiv 

Conclusion

1. is expected to trade at a discount, considering Rising Impairments and Weak Trading Performance and fears of global slowdown. For conducting the valuation, the following peers have been considered - Shell PLC (LSE: SHEL), EnQuest PLC (LSE: ENQ) and others.

Given its current trading levels, Decline in Underlying Profit and Continued Tax Pressure, recent rally in the share price, relative valuation, and associated risks, it is prudent to exit the stock at the current levels. Hence, a ‘Sell’ recommendation is given on the stock at the Current Market Price of GBX 445.80 as of 04 November 2025 at 10:45 AM GMT.

Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 04 November 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: Target Price refers to a price level which the stock is expected to reach as per the relative valuation method and/or technical analysis taking into consideration both short-term and long-term scenario.

Note 5: ‘Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from the London Stock Exchange (LSE) and/or REFINITIV. Typically, both sources (LSE and or REFINITIV) may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 15-20 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.’

Note 6: Dividend Yield may vary as per the stock price movement.