Company Overview: PDD Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: PDD) is a multinational commerce company that owns and operates a portfolio of businesses. The Company is focused on bringing businesses and people into the digital economy, which benefits local communities and small businesses from improved productivity and new opportunities. The Company has built a network of sourcing, logistics, and fulfillment capabilities that support its underlying businesses. 

As per our previous US Earning Hunter Report published on ‘PDD’ on 18^th March 2025, Kalkine provided an ‘Attractive’ stance on the stock at USD 126.83, based on “Earning Hunter score and other technical and fundamental metrics”.

Current Macro and company specific rationales:

• S. Tariff Policies and Trade Tensions: U.S. tariffs, mirrored by China’s 34% tariff on all imports from the United States as announced by the official Xinhua News Agency, have escalated trade tensions, disrupting global supply chains and increasing costs for PDD Holdings, which depends on cross-border e-commerce through platforms like Temu. This tariff war reduces consumer demand in key markets, exerting downward pressure on PDD’s stock price.
• Fears of a U.S. Recession: Concerns over a potential U.S. recession have led to reduced consumer spending on discretionary goods, a significant category for PDD’s e-commerce platforms. This economic slowdown, combined with a broader tech sector sell-off, undermines investor confidence in PDD’s growth prospects, contributing to its stock price decline.
• Intensified Competition in China’s E-commerce Market: PDD faces fierce competition from rivals like JD.com and Alibaba, particularly as its discount-focused model through Pinduoduo is challenged by competitors adopting similar strategies. This competitive pressure, alongside PDD’s reliance on low-margin sales, risks eroding profitability and market share, negatively impacting its stock valuation.
• Global Inflation and Interest Rate Uncertainty: Rising global inflation diminishes consumer purchasing power, affecting PDD’s sales of affordable goods, while high interest rates make safer investments more attractive, prompting investors to de-risk. This shift away from growth stocks like PDD, which operates in a high-competition, low-margin sector, contributes to the decline in its stock price.

Noted below are the details of support and resistance levels provided in our previous report:

PDD’s Daily Chart 

Considering the current trading levels, volatile macro environment, tariffs increased both by US and China, breaking of key important support of USD 120, and risks associated, an ‘Unattractive’ rating is assigned to the “PDD” at the closing market price of USD 113.67, as of April 03, 2025.

Note: This report may be updated with details around fundamental and technical analysis, price/ chart in due course, as appropriate

Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance level is April 03, 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: Target Price refers to a price level that the stock is expected to reach as per the relative valuation method and or technical analysis taking into consideration both short-term and long-term scenarios.

Note 5: ‘Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), NASDAQ Capital Markets (NASDAQ), and or REFINITIV. Typically, all sources (NYSE, NASDAQ, or REFINITIV) may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 15-20 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.’