Raw sugar ended Wednesday 11 November 2026 close to two-month lows. The ICE Futures US Sugar No. 11 March 2027 contract (SBH27) was quoted at about 18.12 US cents per lb on 11 November, up 0.03 cents on the day. That followed a five-week low of 17.92 cents on Tuesday. March raw sugar had been up 1.1% at 18.29 cents at 1405 GMT on Wednesday, so prices gave back part of their intraday bounce before the close.

The main development is a faster than expected start to India's 2026/27 crushing season. The Indian Sugar and Bioenergy Manufacturers Association put output from 1 October to 5 November at 1.29 million tonnes, nearly four times the level of a year earlier. Weaker Crude Oil and a softer Brazilian real have added to the pressure. The level is well below the 20 cents-plus seen in late October.

Brazil: rain disruption and a heavy tilt to ethanol

Brazil's centre-south is the market's swing supplier, and its 2026/27 season has been unusual. Industry figures to 1 October showed cane crushing up 1.81% year on year at 412.4 million tonnes. Sugar output was down 10.29% at 24.1 million tonnes. Mills sent 53.44% of cane to ethanol, against 47.23% a season earlier. Corn ethanol production rose 8.47% to 4.04 billion litres.

Heavy rain then slowed the harvest. Figures for 1-15 October showed crushing down 21.3% year on year at 27.3 million tonnes. Sugar output fell 27.1% to 1.87 million tonnes. Cumulative sugar production to mid-October was 30.8 million tonnes, down 14.6%. A larger fortnight had been expected, and rain is estimated to have cost about 5.6 crushing days.

The rains are linked to El Niño. Persistent wet weather could end centre-south milling earlier than usual. That makes the timing of the next harvest less certain. A shorter season would reduce Brazilian sugar Supply in the near term. However, it would not necessarily say anything about the size of the 2027/28 crop.

India: production rebound versus export uncertainty

India's position has changed during 2026. In May, the government moved sugar exports to "prohibited" until September 2026, with exemptions for set quotas and government-approved shipments. In late September, the director general of the Indian Sugar Mills Association said India might not be able to export in 2027 because of poor rain in Maharashtra and Karnataka. He also said the country might need imports.

The early crush data point the other way, at least for now. A solid start to the season does not by itself confirm a large final crop. Policy for 2026/27 exports has not been confirmed. If New Delhi later allows exports, that could add to world supply. If drought losses emerge in the main cane states, it could tighten the balance again.

Ethanol parity, crude oil and the real

Brazilian mills choose between sugar and ethanol depending on relative returns. When ethanol pays more, cane is diverted away from sugar, as it was earlier this season. Lower energy prices reduce the incentive to crush cane for ethanol, which weighs on sugar. Over time, this could mean more cane going to sugar in later seasons if crude stays weak.

Currency matters too. On 4 November, Brazil's election result sharply weakened the real, increasing hedge selling by mills, and funds cut long positions. A weaker real raises the local-currency value of dollar-priced sugar and can encourage forward sales.

The forward curve is also informative. On 6 November, contracts for 2028 and 2029 traded at lower prices than nearby months, around 16 to 17 cents. That shape suggests the market expects more supply later.

Company exposure: refiners and integrated producers

Associated British Foods (LSE:ABF) owns sugar businesses in the UK, Europe and Africa. On 3 November it reported pre-tax profit of £1.3 billion for the year to 12 September 2026. The company has said it will keep investing in its sugar operations and highlighted cost management and the regional mix of its markets. ABF's (LSE:ABF) sugar Earnings depend on regional prices and costs rather than on No. 11 alone. The group is also diversified through Primark, grocery and ingredients, which spreads its exposure across several markets.

Rogers Sugar (TSX:RSI) refines imported raw cane sugar in Montréal and Vancouver and processes beet in Taber, Alberta. Its third-quarter adjusted gross Margin rose slightly to C$245 per tonne. For a refiner, raw sugar costs are passed through to customers in large part, so No. 11 moves tend to affect Revenue more than margin. Its LEAP project is expected to add about 100,000 tonnes of capacity in the first half of 2027.

What could change the picture

Factors that could support prices include an early end to the centre-south harvest, further El Niño damage in Brazil or Asia, Indian export restrictions staying in place, or a recovery in crude oil that improves ethanol returns. A pronounced El Niño could reach its peak phase between November and January.

Factors that could weigh on prices include a large Indian crop with room for exports, further real weakness and mill selling, or more cane going to sugar as ethanol becomes less attractive.

What to watch next

The next fortnightly centre-south reports, including any data on mills ending the season early.

Sugar industry production updates and any Indian government decision on 2026/27 export quotas.

Weekly fund positioning data each Friday, which shows whether funds keep cutting long positions.

Brent and WTI crude prices and Petrobras fuel pricing, which affect ethanol Parity in Brazil.

The USD/BRL exchange rate, which influences hedge selling.

Rogers Sugar's fiscal fourth-quarter results conference call on 26 November 2026.