London white sugar futures rose on Wednesday 11 November 2026. ICE London No. 5 white sugar was up 1.3% at $511.50 a tonne during the session. Raw sugar on ICE in New York, the No. 11 contract, rose 1.1% to 18.29 US cents a pound after hitting a five-week low on Tuesday.

The move reversed part of Tuesday's fall. White sugar had been at $504.60 a tonne on 10 November, down 1%, amid weak physical demand. The International Sugar Organization's white sugar price index, calculated from London futures, was $508.75 a tonne on 10 November. That is a separate measure, but it puts the market in the same range.

What moved prices this week

Two competing influences stood out. Lower energy prices this week reduced the incentive for Brazilian mills to turn cane into ethanol rather than sugar, which tends to weigh on sugar. Against that, Brazil's sugar output has been sharply lower this year because of excessive rain, which could bring an early end to the harvest.

Brazilian production fell 41.6% in the first half of September because of rain. Indian output was also lower after hot, dry weather, El Niño could hurt production elsewhere in Asia and southern China was too dry.

The energy link matters because Brazil's centre-south mills can switch a share of their cane between sugar and ethanol. When fuel prices fall, ethanol becomes less attractive and more cane tends to go to sugar, adding to world supply. When oil rises, the reverse can happen. The Brazilian real also matters: a firmer real raises the dollar value that mills need to earn from exports, which can support prices. Neither link is mechanical, and the weather effects on this season's harvest have so far been larger.

There was also extra Supply on offer, as the Trading Corporation of Pakistan issued a tender to sell and export 108,000 tonnes of white refined sugar.

Europe's beet crop and the white premium

White sugar is refined and ready to use, so it usually trades at a premium to raw sugar. On Wednesday's figures, the raw price works out at about $403 a tonne, implying a premium of roughly $108. That is an approximate calculation and may compare different contract months.

European supply has been a key support. In late October the EU's JRC MARS crop-monitoring bulletin cut its sugar beet Yield expectations by a further 7% in September, after heat and drought in France, Germany, Poland and parts of central and eastern Europe. On 27 October December London No. 5 stood at $519.20 and March at $531.40, so prices have eased since then.

Associated British Foods: a producer's perspective

Associated British Foods (LSE:ABF) is the UK's main listed white sugar producer. Its sugar division includes British Sugar, the sole processor of the UK beet crop, as well as Azucarera in Spain and Illovo in southern and eastern Africa, with capacity of about 4 million tonnes a year.

For a producer, white sugar prices influence Revenue per tonne. ABF (LSE:ABF) published annual results for the year to 12 September 2026 on 3 November, with sugar revenue of £1,966 million. The company pointed to European sugar prices, gas costs and the size of the 2026-27 beet crop after a hot, dry summer as the main influences on the division. In July, British Sugar said it would end beet processing at Cantley in 2027 as part of reshaping its network.

ABF (LSE:ABF) has outlined its sugar plans for the 2027 financial year, citing gas costs, weather risks to African production and currency moves, especially in Malawi. It expects European production to fall significantly but said the market is likely to remain well supplied in the short term because of high stocks carried over from 2025. ABF also said the recent rise in world sugar prices should be supportive in future years. Because sugar sits alongside grocery, ingredients and the Primark retail chain, the division is one part of a diversified group.

Rogers Sugar: a refiner's margin

Rogers Sugar (TSX:RSI), the parent of Lantic, is Canada's main listed sugar company. It refines imported raw cane sugar and processes sugar beet at Taber in Alberta. It buys raw sugar priced off the New York No. 11 contract, so London white prices are not a direct input. A wide white premium, however, can indicate healthy refining margins.

In its third-quarter fiscal 2026 results, Rogers reported sugar volumes of about 187,855 tonnes and a sugar adjusted gross Margin of $245 a tonne. It raised its full-year Volume forecast to 745,000 tonnes. Its LEAP expansion, costing $280 million to $300 million, is expected to add about 100,000 tonnes of refined capacity in the first half of calendar 2027.

What could shift the balance

White sugar could firm if Brazil's harvest ends early, if El Niño reduces Asian crops, or if the EU beet harvest disappoints further. Prices could fall if energy prices stay low and Brazilian mills keep favouring sugar over ethanol, if exporters such as Pakistan add supply, or if Demand stays weak.

What to watch next

Key releases include twice-monthly industry data on Brazil's centre-south cane crush, updates on India's 2026-27 crushing season, and further EU beet harvest estimates. Weekly fund positioning data shows the stance in New York raw sugar. Rogers Sugar will discuss its fourth-quarter results on a call on 26 November 2026.