COMEX copper futures were quoted at about $6.23 a pound on Wednesday 11 November 2026, roughly 0.2% higher on the day after slipping to a four-month low near $6.20 earlier in the week. In London, LME copper closed the overnight session at $13,794.50 a tonne, up 0.6%. The two benchmarks are reported separately because they trade on different exchanges, in different units and at different times.

The main development is in China, where the premiums buyers pay for physical metal have climbed to record levels even as exchange prices have drifted lower.

China's physical market tightens while futures soften

The CIF China cathode Import premium was assessed at $220 a tonne over LME cash on 6 November, the highest since the assessment began in August 2014. The Yangshan premium reached a record $230 a tonne on 9 November, Shanghai spot premiums hit a record 2,615 yuan a tonne, and Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks fell to 33,848 tonnes, a three-year low.

The tightness is linked to lower refined copper shipments into China this year, smelter output cuts driven by higher ore costs and thinner margins, and large volumes of metal moved to the US ahead of possible import tariffs. Maintenance at Chinese and Japanese smelters has also been cited.

There are early signs that the squeeze may be easing. On 12 November some suppliers had become more willing to sell and delayed import cargoes were restocking the market. Shanghai's average spot premium fell by 725 yuan to 975 yuan a tonne on 11 November.

The US Tariff question and the COMEX–LME spread

The gap between New York and London prices has narrowed sharply. The CME spot premium over the LME shrank from above $700 a tonne in August to about $80, and COMEX November copper was about $85 a tonne below LME cash on 4 November. CME warehouses held 732,949 tonnes, about 85% of global exchange stocks, and the White House has neither imposed nor withdrawn its proposed copper tariff.

Expectations of a tariff weakened after the Democratic sweep in the US midterm elections. If a tariff were ruled out, some US stocks could eventually move to other markets, although analysts expect any redistribution to be gradual. Some banks consider re-exports unlikely until tariffs are definitively ruled out.

As a rough check, $6.2324 a pound converts to about $13,740 a tonne, slightly below the LME close. The quotes were taken at different times, so this calculation only indicates that the arbitrage has largely closed.

Demand, rates and positioning

Sentiment has been tied to artificial intelligence spending. Firm results from CoreWeave revived interest in copper's role in data centres and power networks, while a tighter regulatory stance after the midterms could slow data-centre construction. Earnings from AI infrastructure producers also eased concerns about weaker computing demand.

Interest rates are a counterweight. Rising bets on US Federal Reserve rate increases limited gains, and high prices and wide spreads between contracts were discouraging Downstream buying. In October, hotter-than-expected US Inflation had revived rate-rise talk and lifted the dollar; COMEX copper's record settlement was $6.89 on 9 September. Money managers' net long position on CME fell from 82,649 contracts in mid-September to 34,444.

Company exposures

Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) is a US-listed producer with US and Indonesian operations. Its US sales benefit when COMEX trades at a premium, so the spread between New York and London matters for its realised prices. Grasberg Block Cave is being ramped up, with Freeport targeting 80% of capacity by mid-2027. Gold output adds Diversification alongside copper.

Antofagasta (LSE:ANTO) is London-listed with mines in Chile and sells mainly on LME-linked terms. Operations at its Centinela mine were running normally again after an agreement with unions in October.

Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO; LSE:RIO) and BHP (ASX:BHP; LSE:BHP) are diversified miners whose earnings depend heavily on iron ore, which reduces their copper sensitivity. Rio approved $144 million to advance the Resolution Copper project in Arizona; it holds 55% and is contributing $79 million, with BHP holding 45%. BHP's supervisors at Escondida ratified a labour agreement in October.

Sandfire Resources (ASX:SFR) is a copper concentrate producer with operations including Matsa in Spain and Motheo in Botswana. Its Revenue is weighted towards copper, so it is closely linked to price moves. Concentrate sellers' revenues also depend on treatment charges, which smelter Economics can shift.

First Quantum Minerals (TSX:FM) and Teck Resources (TSX: TECK.B) are Canadian-listed copper producers. Teck is merging with Anglo American (LSE:AAL); Anglo said in March it expected final regulatory approval between September 2026 and March 2027.

What could strengthen or weaken the outlook

Prices could find support if Chinese restocking continues, smelter cuts persist or new mine disruptions emerge. A firm US tariff decision could also reopen the COMEX premium.

Conversely, a faster release of US inventories, further gains in the dollar, Fed rate rises or weaker downstream buying in China could weigh on prices. Easing premiums in Shanghai would suggest the physical squeeze is fading.

What to watch next

Watch weekly Shanghai Futures Exchange stock reports and daily LME and CME Warehouse data for signs of metal moving between regions. Weekly fund positioning data will show whether funds rebuild long positions. Any White House statement on refined copper tariffs would directly affect the COMEX–LME spread, and China's monthly customs data will show whether imports are recovering. Company production updates from Freeport and Antofagasta (LSE:ANTO) on Grasberg and Chilean output are also worth following.