Breville Group Limited (ASX:BRG) just released its latest interim report and things are not looking great. Breville Group missed analyst forecasts, with revenues of AU$906m and statutory earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.58, falling short by 4.8% and 2.6% respectively. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Breville Group after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Breville Group  earnings-and-revenue-growth

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Breville Group's 14 analysts is for revenues of AU$1.53b in 2024. This would reflect a reasonable 2.4% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be AU$0.80, roughly flat on the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of AU$1.60b and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.85 in 2024. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a small dip in earnings per share estimates.

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of AU$25.09, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Breville Group's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Breville Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at AU$28.30 and the most bearish at AU$20.00 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.



Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Breville Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 4.8% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 15% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.9% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Breville Group.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Breville Group. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Breville Group analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also view our analysis of Breville Group's balance sheet, and whether we think Breville Group is carrying too much debt, for free  on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.