Section 1: Company Overview and Fundamentals

1.1 Company Overview:

Macy's, Inc. (NYSE: M) is an omni-channel retail company. The Company operates stores, websites and mobile applications under three brands, Macy's, Bloomingdale's and Bluemercury, which sell a range of merchandise, including apparel and accessories (men's, women's and kids'), cosmetics, home furnishings and other consumer goods. The Company has stores in 43 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico and Guam.

Kalkine’s Dividend Income Report covers the Company Overview, Key positives & negatives, Investment summary, Key investment metrics, Top 10 shareholding, Business updates and insights into company recent financial results, Key Risks & Outlook, Price performance and technical summary, Target Price, and Recommendation on the stock.

Price Performance:

• M's share price has corrected by 9.14% in the past three months. Similarly, in the long term, the stock has corrected by 2.58% over the past six months.

• The stock is leaning towards the upper band of its 52-week range of USD 22.10 and 52-week low price of USD 10.54, with the current price near an important support level of USD 17.00-USD 18.00, therefore an expectation of upward movement if the levels sustain.
• The price is currently between both its short-term (50-day) SMA and long-term (200-day) SMA, with the current RSI of 48.72, upward trending, with expectations of upward movement.

1.2 The Key Positives, Negatives, and Investment summary   

1.3 Top 10 shareholders:

The top 10 shareholders together form ~43.27% of the total shareholding, signifying diverse shareholding. The Vanguard Group, Inc., and BlackRock Institutional Trust Company, N.A., are the biggest shareholders, holding the maximum stake in the company at ~12.31% and ~7.96%, respectively.

1.4 Dividend payments with impressive dividend yield:

The board of directors of Macy's, Inc. has declared a regular quarterly dividend of USD 0.1737 per share (current dividend yield of 3.71%) on the company’s common stock. This dividend is scheduled for payment on July 1, 2024, to shareholders who are recorded as of the close of business on June 14, 2024.

Macy's, Inc. has a long-standing tradition of returning value to its shareholders through regular dividend payments. The company has consistently declared quarterly dividends, demonstrating its commitment to delivering shareholder value and maintaining investor confidence. Over the years, Macy's has adjusted its dividend payouts in response to various economic conditions, reflecting its strategic financial management and operational performance. The board's decision to declare dividends is based on a comprehensive evaluation of the company's financial health, cash flow, and future growth prospects, ensuring a balanced approach to rewarding shareholders while reinvesting in business opportunities.

1.5 Key Metrics

From 2020 to 2024, Macy's, Inc. experienced notable fluctuations in revenue and gross profit. Revenue peaked at USD 25,331 million in 2020, fell sharply to USD 18,097 million in 2021 (due to coronavirus pandemic outbreak), and then recovered to USD 25,305 million in 2023 before declining to USD 23,866 million in 2024. Gross profit followed a similar pattern, with significant drops and recoveries, and gross margin percentages varied, reaching a low of 32.11% in 2021 and a high of 40.87% in 2022. These trends illustrate the company's resilience amid economic challenges, although maintaining stable revenue and profitability remains an ongoing challenge.

Section 2: Business Updates and Financial Highlights

2.1 Recent Updates:

The below picture gives an overview of the recent updates:

 2.2 Insights of Q1FY25:

Section 3: Key Risks and Outlook:

Section 4: Stock Recommendation Summary:

4.1 Technical Summary:

 Price Performance:

• M's share price has corrected by 9.14% in the past three months. Similarly, in the long term, the stock has corrected by 2.58% over the past six months.

• The stock is leaning towards the upper band of its 52-week range of USD 22.10 and 52-week low price of USD 10.54, with the current price near an important support level of USD 17.00-USD 18.00, therefore an expectation of upward movement if the levels sustain.
• The price is currently between both its short-term (50-day) SMA and long-term (200-day) SMA, with the current RSI of 48.72, upward trending, with expectations of upward movement.

4.2 Fundamental Valuation

Valuation Methodology: Price/Earnings Per Share Multiple Based Relative Valuation

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macroeconomic issues and geopolitical tensions prevailing. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is June 12, 2024. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: The report publishing date is as per the Pacific Time Zone.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.

 Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.

 Stop-loss: It is a level to protect against further losses in case of unfavorable movement in the stock prices.