Daily-Wrap

Macro Update:The Autumn Budget in late 2025 led to increased spending and taxes, with the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasting a higher surplus by 2029-30. However, the OBR also revised its GDP growth forecast downwards to 1.5% over the next five years, reflecting …

Macro Update:The UK economy has experienced sluggish growth, including a 0.1% contraction in September. While inflation is falling, it remains above the Bank of England's 2% target, continuing to fuel cost-of-living concerns.

Macro Update:Higher-than-forecast nominal earnings growth will directly increase income tax and national insurance receipts, providing an automatic, timely fiscal buffer that partially mitigates the headwinds from weaker underlying productivity and GDP growth.

Macro Update:UK banks are poised to gain as the Bank of England eases capital rules, boosting lending capacity. Defensive sectors like utilities and essential consumer staples (e.g., Unilever) should also be resilient amid slowing growth and inflation. Conversely, hospitality and retail face headwinds from …

Macro Update:The UK manufacturing sector has demonstrated underlying resilience, returning to growth after a prolonged contraction. This recovery, signified by the PMI moving above the stagnation threshold of 50, is particularly notable as it occurred despite significant business uncertainty and a subdued economic environment …

Macro Update:The Bank of England opted to hold its Bank Rate at 4.00%, in a narrowly split 5–4 decision — signalling cautious optimism but also concern over persistent inflation and a weakening labour market. At the same time, labour-market softness has become more evident, …

Macro Update:Britain’s finance minister Rachel Reeves defended her latest budget after announcing £26bn in new tax rises, arguing that scrapping the cap on child benefits for larger low-income families is socially necessary despite criticism of a return to high-tax policies. Big investors broadly welcomed …