Daily-Wrap

Macro Update:Finance Minister Rachel Reeves has informed the budget watchdog that her November 26 budget may include significant personal tax increases—signalling major fiscal tightening aimed at cost-of-living pressures and debt targets. Meanwhile, analysts at Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, and UBS Global Research now expect the …

Macro Update:The Bank of England faces a finely balanced decision Thursday, with most investors expecting no change to the base rate at4.0%but a growing minority (about one-in-three) anticipating a cut to3.75%—a marked shift from just a month ago. The rate-cut pause reflects mixed signals: …

Macro Update:Britain’s backdrop shows tentative momentum but rising pre-budget anxiety: the services PMI rose to 52.3 in October (from 50.8, above the 51.1 flash) with 12-month expectations at their highest since Oct-2024, even as Finance Minister Rachel Reeves prioritises growth ahead of possible Nov …

Macro Update:Finance Minister Rachel Reeves signalled broad tax rises in the Nov 26 budget to avoid “austerity,” citing high debt, low productivity and stubborn inflation, while odds of a year-end BoE rate cut rose as inflation held at 3.8% y/y with easing services and …

Macro Update:The Bank of England is expected to pause rate cuts this week after its narrow August move to 4%, but softer inflation (3.8% vs a forecast 4%), weaker wage growth and higher unemployment have kept hopes of another cut alive. Nationwide data show …

Macro Update:UK markets reflected a mix of resilience and caution as house prices rose 0.3% in October, defying forecasts and marking a 2.4% annual gain, signaling steady housing demand ahead of Finance Minister Rachel Reeves’ Nov. 26 budget, which may include tax hikes. Meanwhile, …

Macro Update:Shell and TotalEnergies reported quarterly profit declines of 10% and 2% as oil prices eased, with Shell beating expectations on gas trading and keeping its $3.5bn buyback while TotalEnergies trims Q4 buybacks to manage debt. In UK politics, PM Keir Starmer declined to …