US Natural Gas futures closed on Tuesday 10 November at their firmest settlement in about seven weeks, then had a choppy Wednesday: prices first pushed higher, then gave ground. The NYMEX Henry Hub December 2026 contract (NGZ26) settled at $3.296 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) on 10 November, up 7.8 cents. That was its highest close since 24 September. On Monday 9 November the contract had settled 7.3% higher at $3.218.

On Wednesday 11 November the contract reached about $3.40, with a session high of $3.397 before sellers moved in, and prices were near $3.25 late in the day. The 10 November settlement is therefore the reference price here.

Cold forecasts meet a crowded short position

Weather is the most clearly documented driver. A storm could bring the season's first snow to parts of the Northeast, with colder temperatures across the East afterwards, and forecasts for the next two weeks had turned colder, with higher Demand than previously expected.

Positioning has also mattered. Money managers held a record 636,576 short positions across Henry Hub contracts, and fund positioning data showed speculators' net short positions on NYMEX and ICE at their largest since March 2020. The two measures differ, but both describe heavily short positioning. Commentators have linked the speed of this week's gains to short covering. That is a plausible explanation rather than a proven one.

Not everyone expects the cold to last. Forecasts showed a below-normal spell in the East from 16 to 20 November, followed by a return towards normal temperatures. On that view the cold could be too brief to sustain demand.

Supply, storage and LNG demand

Production has eased from its summer peak. Average Lower 48 output was 112.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, compared with 113.4 bcfd in October and a monthly record of 115 bcfd in August.

Export demand is running at record levels. Feedgas to US LNG export plants has averaged a record 19.3 bcfd in November. European TTF stood at about $28/MMBtu and Asian LNG near $29, several times the US price. That gap keeps US export terminals running at full capacity. However, export volumes are limited by terminal capacity, not by the price spread alone.

Storage remains comfortable. Inventories were estimated at about 3,801 billion cubic feet (Bcf), 54 Bcf above normal. Stocks for the week ended 6 November were expected to be about 2.1% above the five-year average, up from 1.4% a week earlier, and traders expected a 65 Bcf injection. The federal storage report was delayed by a day because of the Veterans Day holiday. In 2020, when Veterans Day also fell on a Wednesday, the release was moved the release to Friday.

Official forecasts point the other way

The US Energy Information Administration's November Short-Term Energy Outlook is more cautious than the futures market. It expects the Henry Hub Spot Price to average $2.87/MMBtu from November to March, with annual averages of $3.37 in 2026 and $2.88 in 2027. A mild start to November led it to raise its end-November storage forecast by nearly 70 Bcf. Seasonal weather outlooks also still leans warm under a pronounced El Niño.

The official forecast figures are spot-price averages over a whole season, while NGZ26 is a single futures month, so the two are not directly comparable. The gap does show the risk to prices if the cold fails to arrive.

How listed producers are exposed

EQT (NYSE:EQT) is an Appalachian gas producer. In the third quarter it sold 583 Bcfe at an average realised price of $2.72/Mcfe. Hedging reduces its short-term sensitivity to futures prices: for the fourth quarter of 2026 it holds collars on about 1.2 MMDth per day, with long puts at $3.72 and short calls at $5.13. EQT has also agreed to acquire Range Resources, subject to Shareholder and regulatory approvals. It has signed a 10-year LNG sales agreement with Lithuania's Ignitis Group, so part of its future Revenue may depend on international gas prices rather than Henry Hub alone.

Expand Energy (NASDAQ:EXE) produced about 7.54 Bcfe per day in the third quarter, and its adjusted profit beat analysts' estimates. Higher Henry Hub prices would normally lift its revenue, though hedges and regional price differences could reduce the benefit.

Tourmaline Oil (TSX:TOU) produced about 2.9 bcf per day of gas in the third quarter. Most of its sales are priced at Canadian hubs such as AECO rather than Henry Hub, and it has hedged 887 mmcf per day for the rest of 2026 at about C$5.07/mcf. It also sells some volumes at prices linked to TTF and JKM. Its 2027 outlook assumes NYMEX gas at US$3.21/MMBtu.

In the UK, Centrica (LSE:CNA) has a Supply agreement with Tourmaline that the Canadian company says adds 30,000 MMBtu per day of international exposure from April 2031. Centrica's main exposure is to British and European gas markets, so its link to Henry Hub is indirect, and the agreement gives Centrica (LSE:CNA) only a small direct tie to US gas.

Woodside and Santos sell LNG mainly under oil-linked or Asian-indexed contracts, so their link to Henry Hub is limited.

What to watch next

The delayed weekly natural gas storage report is the next scheduled test, along with Friday's fund positioning data, which will show whether short covering has continued. Six-to-fourteen-day weather outlooks will show whether the cold forecast for mid-November extends into December.

The December contract expires in late November, so prices may become more active as positions roll into January. The next Short-Term Energy Outlook in December will update its winter forecast. For EQT investors, the regulatory filings for the Range Resources deal are the next milestone. If forecasts warm again or storage injections exceed expectations, prices could ease. If cold arrives as LNG demand stays at records, the large short position could add to upward momentum.