NYMEX palladium futures were quoted at $1,029.50 a troy ounce at 19:55 New York time on Wednesday 11 November, down 0.07%, with spot palladium at $1,032.18. Earlier in the US session, spot palladium had risen 1.8% to $1,043.00, its highest level since 22 October.

The main development is a sharp rebound from a 16-month low a week ago, set against a hardening outlook for US interest rates and conflicting forecasts on whether the market is in surplus or deficit.

From a 16-month low to a three-week high

On 4 November palladium recovered to above $935 an ounce but remained near its lowest level since June 2025. It jumped about 5% the following day, and by 10 November futures were trading around $1,050, near a three-week high.

Early on Wednesday, December palladium was up $64.70 at $1,085.50 at 04:24 Chicago time, after an almost unchanged session on Tuesday, and the day's gain reached 5.2% at one stage. Most of that advance faded by the evening.

Palladium also remains cheap relative to platinum. On 4 November it traded at a 32.6% discount to its sister metal, a gap that could encourage carmakers to revisit catalyst designs. Engineering changes of that kind take years rather than months, so any effect on Demand is likely to be gradual.

The size of those swings reflects a thin market. Palladium futures trade in much smaller volumes than gold, so modest flows can move the price sharply.

Rates, the dollar and the car market

The macro pressure is the same as for other precious metals. October US consumer prices rose 0.4% against a 0.3% forecast, and futures implied an 87.1% chance of a quarter-point Fed rise in December by late Wednesday. The dollar index was near its highest since April 2025.

Demand is dominated by vehicles. The auto sector accounts for more than 80% of palladium demand and faces pressure from electric-vehicle adoption, weak sales and tighter consumer spending, though hybrids continue to use catalytic converters. A September industry report forecast automotive palladium demand of 7.695 million ounces in 2026, down from 7.890 million in 2025.

Surplus or deficit?

Forecasters differ on the balance. One refiner expects a 2026 Deficit of 345,000 ounces as mine Supply falls, while Johnson Matthey (LSE:JMAT) sees a surplus because of softer car demand. Some bank analysts say the market may be moving from Scarcity towards surplus. Those are published views, not settled outcomes.

On supply, Russia's output is constrained, and Nornickel, the largest producer, has warned that an overhaul at one of its plants could extend into 2028. Any further disruption to Russian or South African output could tighten the market, while rising recycling could loosen it.

The US trade case and Sibanye-Stillwater

Trade policy has been a key topic for US producers. The US Commerce Department set final duties of 132.83% (anti-dumping) and 109.1% (countervailing) on unwrought palladium from Russia, but on 29 May the US International Trade Commission concluded its investigation. US imports of Russian palladium had risen to 27.6 tonnes in 2024 from 20.4 tonnes in 2022, and the metal has so far avoided US sanctions. Russian metal therefore continues to compete with US mine supply.

Sibanye-Stillwater (NYSE: SBSW) owns palladium and platinum mines in Montana. Its US operations resumed on 7 October, and the company updated its 2026 US guidance to 245,000-255,000 ounces. Its South African PGM and gold operations provide diversification.

Other listed exposure

Valterra Platinum (LSE:VALT), formerly Anglo American Platinum, produces palladium as part of its South African PGM basket. Its third-quarter PGM output was 804,300 ounces, and it expects unit costs at or near the upper end of its range. Because platinum and rhodium are also in its basket, palladium is only one driver of the Revenue of Valterra (LSE:VALT). Its costs are largely incurred in rand, so the Exchange Rate can matter as much as the dollar price for its margins.

Johnson Matthey (LSE:JMAT) is exposed differently. As a refiner and fabricator rather than a miner, it is affected more by metal volumes, refining activity and Working Capital than by the price level alone. Its surplus forecast, cited above, is one of the main published views on the market.

What could strengthen or weaken the outlook

Palladium could find support if Russian supply disruption deepens, if North American output stays below earlier guidance, or if hybrid vehicle demand holds up. A softer dollar or a less aggressive Fed would also help.

It could weaken if the surplus forecasts prove accurate, if battery-electric vehicles take a larger share of sales, or if carmakers substitute platinum for palladium. Higher US rates would also raise the cost of holding the metal. A firmer dollar would make the metal more expensive for buyers outside the US.

What to watch next

The US producer price index for October is due on Friday 13 November at 08:30 ET, and the Fed's decision is due on 9 December. Traders will also watch the weekly fund positioning report, NYMEX Warehouse stocks, monthly vehicle sales and production data, and any update from Nornickel on its plant overhaul. Sibanye-Stillwater's next operating update will show US output levels.