Highlights

  • The LME-linked cobalt benchmark was flat at US$33,525/t on 10 Nov, down 14.6% in a month, even as Chinese refined cobalt rallied hard.
  • Rumours of Supply problems in Congo and speculative money lifted Chinese prices, but Congo's Quota exports keep arriving and end Demand is weak.
  • Unless Kinshasa cuts its 96,600t quota or buyers restock, the Chinese bounce looks fragile; watch ARECOMS, hydroxide tenders and refinery output.

A speculative rally in Shanghai has not reached the global cobalt price, which is still paying for Congo's decision to let its metal flow again.

What happened

The global cobalt benchmark went nowhere this week. The LME-linked price was unchanged at US$33,525/t on 10 November, about US$15.21/lb. It has lost 14.6% in a month and 31% in a year.

China told a very different story. The average refined cobalt price jumped CNY 25,000, or 11.9%, in the week to 6 November, reaching CNY 235,000/t. By Monday mainstream smelters had lifted ex-works offers to CNY 270,000/t.

The bigger trend is still down. Cobalt sat near US$58,000/t in the first quarter and around US$56,300/t in early July before tumbling to US$39,140/t by 29 September. In Europe, cobalt metal was put at US$22.00/lb on 14 October, down 16.1% since mid-year, while hydroxide had dropped 42.9% to US$14.50/lb.

Why it happened

The Chinese rally started with talk, not tonnes. Rumours circulated that "local supply in the DRC may run into issues", while fundamentals had not changed and sentiment and Capital flows drove the move.

Physical buyers did not follow. Cobalt sulphate sellers are asking CNY 48,000-50,000/t, but Downstream bids stay near CNY 40,000-41,000/t. Hydroxide miners want more than US$11-12/lb, buyers need about US$10.5/lb to avoid losses, and two domestic tenders failed.

Behind the global slide is Congo's quota regime. Kinshasa replaced its 2025 export ban with an annual cap of 96,600 tonnes for 2026 and 2027: an 87,000-tonne base plus a 9,600-tonne strategic pool. Once the paperwork cleared, the metal moved. Congo exported 24,086 tonnes in the second quarter, up from 17,053 tonnes in the first. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence's George Ingall said rising DRC-origin supply "succeeded the weak downstream buying that defined Q2".

ARECOMS has already shown it can tighten. In late June it scrapped second-quarter allocations not shipped by 5 July, removing an estimated 15,000-20,000 tonnes of annual allowance, yet prices still slid in August and September as cargoes reached China.

Demand has not kept pace. Industry analysts say weak demand and better availability "will keep prices under pressure", with consumer electronics also losing out as AI data centres compete for chips.

How it plays out

The quota is still squeezing real supply. 2026 mined output is estimated at 214,000 tonnes, down from 270,000 tonnes in 2025, as Congolese miners hold back. A rebound to 243,000 tonnes is expected in 2027, with the Indonesian MHP forecast cut to 44,800 tonnes after sulphur costs roughly doubled.

Stock is building inside Congo. CMOC sold 12,661 tonnes of cobalt in the third quarter, down 75%, while producing or procuring 99,694 tonnes, up 13%. That overhang caps rallies and leaves miners exposed to any quota change.

Regulator ARECOMS has said it could cut volumes if the imbalance persists or worsens. That is the main upside risk. Without it, Chinese refiners risk restocking at inflated prices, while battery and alloy buyers outside China enjoy cheaper metal.

Next week, watch whether China's CNY 270,000/t offers turn into real deals, any ARECOMS statement on 2027 allocations, and hydroxide tender results. Output has recovered quickly since October and inventory build-up is re-emerging, so a failed rally could drag Chinese prices back toward the global benchmark.