Highlights

  • LME NASAAC was quoted at US$2,750/t on 6 Nov, unchanged over one week, one month and three months, while LME stocks sit at 120 tonnes.
  • No NASAAC-specific news surfaced; with tiny inventory and almost no trade, the price is static while primary aluminium does the moving.
  • The discount to primary cash is about US$367/t; any move will likely follow primary aluminium, US premiums and scrap costs.

The LME's North American special aluminium alloy contract has barely moved since August, a sign of how little metal and trade are left in it.

What happened

The LME's NASAAC contract, the North American special aluminium alloy used in casting, was quoted at US$2,750 a tonne on 6 November, the latest print available. The price was unchanged on the week, the month and the past three months.

Over six months the quote is up 12.24%, and it is 14.58% higher since the start of the year. Both of those gains appear to have come before August, because nothing has changed since.

Inventory explains the stillness. LME NASAAC stocks were 120 tonnes on 10 November, unchanged on the month but a third lower than a year earlier. That is a few truckloads of metal on an exchange built for global trade.

Why it happened

There has been no fresh news on NASAAC itself, so the contract is simply not trading enough to move. With so little metal on warrant, there is little incentive to hedge or deliver against it, and the quote stays where it was last set.

Meanwhile primary aluminium has been lively. LME cash settled at US$3,117 a tonne on 6 November and US$3,137 on 10 November. Against the 6 November primary price, NASAAC traded at a discount of about US$367 a tonne, computed from the two quotes.

Primary metal is being driven by things NASAAC holders do not feel directly. A three-week low on 10 November was linked to a firmer dollar and hopes of Middle East de-escalation, before a 1.3% rebound to US$3,050 for three-month metal the next day, helped by falling LME stocks.

Secondary alloy Demand is also soft. End-use demand for die-casting alloy in China is sluggish and largely need-based, and there is no sign of a buying wave for alloy elsewhere.

The forces behind primary aluminium are global rather than North American. Gulf smelters are restarting after war damage, with Emirates Global Aluminium targeting full recovery in the first quarter of 2027, while Chinese aluminium exports rose 25.9% year on year in September. Neither development has yet shown up in the NASAAC quote.

How it plays out

For now NASAAC behaves like a reference price rather than a live market. Real North American alloy deals are largely priced off primary aluminium plus the US Midwest premium, which stood at 105 US cents a pound on 6 November.

That premium matters more than the LME alloy quote. Section 232 tariffs of 50% on most aluminium imports keep US delivered metal expensive, which supports the value of scrap-based alloy made inside the country.

China is a second pressure point. Rising Chinese exports weighed on aluminium this week and pushed Shanghai prices to an 11-month low. Cheaper Chinese metal would eventually narrow the gap between alloy and primary prices worldwide.

Winners are US die-casters able to secure scrap-based alloy at a discount to tariff-inflated primary metal. Losers are anyone hoping to use NASAAC as a hedge, because a static price with 120 tonnes behind it offers little protection.

Next week, watch for any fresh NASAAC print, a change in LME stocks, the US Midwest premium and the direction of primary aluminium. Market forecasts expect LME aluminium to hold between US$2,950 and US$3,090 in the near term. A break outside that range is the most likely trigger for NASAAC to move again.