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Daily-Wrap

UK steady; global risk-on — AI $5T buzz, trade thaw, Fed-cut watch:

Macro Update:Reform UK’s surge from anti-immigration/EU rhetoric is meeting a first governance test as it runs many local authorities, pledging cost cuts (inspired by Elon Musk–style efficiency) despite no prior governing experience and just five MPs—an outcome that could reshape national politics if delivery …

Team Kalkine | 29 October 2025

Risk-on on truce/Fed hopes; UK fiscal squeeze as prices ease:

Macro Update:Britain faces tighter fiscal room as the OBR is expected to cut its productivity forecast by 0.3pp, implying roughly £20bn extra borrowing by 2029/30, even as October retail data offered modest relief with shop prices -0.3% m/m (food -0.4%) and annual shop inflation …

Team Kalkine | 28 October 2025

FTSE rises on truce hopes; UK capex lags

Macro Update:Make UK reports manufacturers’ investment in plant and machinery has fallen to 6.8% of turnover (from 8.1% in 2024), the lowest since 2017, with R&D down to 6.2% as firms prioritise staff costs and training, prompting calls to refine tax incentives in the …

Team Kalkine | 28 October 2025

FTSE rises on truce hopes; UK capex lags:

Macro Update:Make UK reports manufacturers’ investment in plant and machinery has fallen to 6.8% of turnover (from 8.1% in 2024), the lowest since 2017, with R&D down to 6.2% as firms prioritise staff costs and training, prompting calls to refine tax incentives in the …

Team Kalkine | 27 October 2025

UK retail up; FTSE record; global risk-on:

Macro Update:UK retail sales rose 0.5% in September, lifting Q3 retail growth to 0.9% and adding about 0.04pp to GDP, driven by new iPhones, strong online gold demand, and warm-weather clothing; volumes hit their highest since Q3 2022, and sterling firmed. Labour reiterated no …

Team Kalkine | 24 October 2025

Markets steady as sanctions lift oil, Tesla miss weighs:

Macro Update:Britain’s median full-time salary rose 4.3% to £39,039 in 2025, the smallest gain since 2021 but still ahead of post-financial-crisis trends, with real wages up 1.1% after inflation and care and leisure sectors benefiting from a higher minimum wage. Hindustan Unilever posted a …

Team Kalkine | 23 October 2025

Markets steadied as oil rose and investors eyed Tesla and tech earnings:

Macro Update:British inflation held steady at 3.8% in September, surprising markets and raising hopes of a Bank of England rate cut later this year ahead of Rachel Reeves’ November budget. Rio Tinto is reportedly exploring an asset-for-equity swap with Chinalco to cut the Chinese …

Team Kalkine | 22 October 2025

Global markets rise on easing U.S.–China trade tensions and improving inflation outlook:

Macro Update:Britain’s defence minister John Healey plans to grant new powers allowing troops to shoot down unidentified drones near military bases amid rising Russian provocations, including recent airspace violations and cyber interference. Meanwhile, the government launched the “Sterling 20” initiative — a coalition of …

Team Kalkine | 21 October 2025

Markets steady amid geopolitical tensions and banking sector concerns:

Macro Update:The UK housing market showed muted activity, with average asking prices rising just 0.3% in the four weeks to October 11—well below the seasonal norm of 1.1%—and down 0.1% year-on-year, as buyers await Rachel Reeves’ November budget amid uncertainty over potential property-related taxes. …

Team Kalkine | 20 October 2025

Global markets dip on U.S. bank stress; UK remains cautious ahead of data:

Macro Update:Man Group’s shares climbed 2.6% to a six-month high after reporting a 22% YoY rise in AUM to a record $213.9bn, surpassing forecasts of $201.7bn, supported by $10bn in investment performance and broad growth across new areas like credit strategies. Meanwhile, AI-driven investment …

Team Kalkine | 17 October 2025

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